Investigating the Limitations of Multi-Model Ensembling of Climate Model Outputs in Capturing Climate Extremes

Abstract

In the context of climate change, the widespread practice of directly employing Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) for projecting future climate extremes, without prior evaluation of MME performance in historical periods, remains underexplored. This research addresses this gap through a comprehensive analysis of ensemble means derived from CMIP6-based models, including both simple and weighted averages of precipitation (SEMP and WEMP) and temperature (SEMT and WEMT) time series, as well as simple (SEME) and weighted (WEME) averages of extremes based on model-by-model analysis. The study evaluates the efficacy of MMEs in capturing mean annual values of ETCCDI indices over India for the period 1951–2014, utilising the IMD gridded data set as a reference. The results reveal that SEME and WEME consistently align closely with IMD data across various precipitation indices. At the same time, SEMP and WEMP consistently display underestimation biases ranging from 20% to 80% across all precipitation indices, except for CWD, where there is an overestimation bias. Moreover, SEMP and WEMP consistently underestimate CDD and overestimate CWD, indicating a systematic bias in these ensemble means, while WEME and SEME demonstrate satisfactory performance. SEMT and WEMT exhibit notable underestimation in temperature indices. In summary, adopting SEME and SEMT leads to a more robust assessment of precipitation and temperature extremes, respectively. These findings highlight the limitations of traditional MME methodologies in reproducing observed extreme precipitation events across various climatic zones in India, offering essential insights for refining climate models and improving the reliability of climate projections specific to the Indian subcontinent.