Atmospheric and Surface Dynamics During Winter Warm Spells in the Southern Great Plains: Insights From the 2021 Case Study

Abstract

Two 2021 winter warm spell events experienced near record extreme surface temperatures, anomalies exceeding $+5°$C, during the winter season in 2021 across the Southern Great Plains (SGP). Extreme heat during the winter season results in similar detrimental socioeconomic impacts compared to their counterpart summer heat wave events. Winter warm spell events across the SGP have been historically increasing over the last several decades, and as such, it is crucial to investigate the drivers of these extreme events. In this study, we use ERA-5 reanalysis data to investigate the atmospheric and surface characteristics associated with these two extreme events (i.e., (a) 29 November–17 December 2021 and (b) 22 December–31 December 2021). A prolonged period of positive geopotential height anomalies amplified subsidence in combination with increased incoming solar radiation and surface heat fluxes aiding extreme surface temperatures during the first winter warm spell event. However, a more prominent atmospheric blocking high (i.e., Alaskan Ridge) initiated and intensified the extreme heat during the second winter warm spell. Increased incoming solar radiation and positive sensible heat flux due to a dry surface fostered extreme heat during the second winter warm spell event. Warm air advection throughout both winter warm spell events supported the extreme surface temperatures. Discovering potential crucial drivers to winter warm spells identifies the sources of predictability to improve prediction of these extreme heat events.