Extremes of Temperature and Precipitation Under CMIP6 Scenarios Projections Over Central Hokkaido, Japan

IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Lulu Zhou, Shilei Peng, Renjun Liao, Kunihito Mihara, Kanta Kuramochi, Yo Toma, Ryusuke Hatano
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Abstract

Climate extreme events are intensifying globally, posing increasing risks across various sectors. Understanding climate extremes' spatiotemporal patterns and responses to climate change is crucial for effective management, especially on a regional scale. This study examines temperature and precipitation extremes, as well as compound dry-hot events (CDHEs), in the Ishikari River basin (IRB) of Northeastern Japan, an area of significant socioeconomic importance. We focus on spatiotemporal analysis under multiple scenarios of temperature/precipitation extremes and CDHEs based on statistical downscaled datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Results indicate that IRB underwent increased trends of extreme hot periods, extreme droughts, and heavy rainfalls during 1985–2014, which are significantly affected by the North Pacific Oscillation and Southern Oscillation Index. Future projections show that warming temperatures and less rainfall shift asymmetrical impacts on temperature and precipitation extremes, expecting increased warm spells and CDHEs but increased wet durations and less heavy rainfalls. Emission scenarios analysis suggests low-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6) could mitigate their exacerbations, especially for CDHEs (decreased by 139%). Moreover, spatial-pattern analysis reveals regional heterogeneity in temperature and precipitation extremes, with northern mountainous regions more susceptible to thermal extremes and southern plain regions (e.g., Sapporo city) experiencing prolonged drought and CDHEs. This study provides valuable insights into climate risk management and adaptation strategies.

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来源期刊
International Journal of Climatology
International Journal of Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
7.70%
发文量
417
审稿时长
4 months
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions
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