David Orgambides-García, David Corell, María José Estrela, María Jesús Barberà, Javier Miró
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
The Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a widely used metric to estimate the wildfire risk based on climatological variables. As anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase wildfire risk by affecting the climate of the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula, we assess the expected increase in wildfire risk during the past decades. For this purpose, we employ a dataset containing daily FWI values in a 0.25° × 0.25° grid for each day of a 52-year period, between 1971 and 2022, and perform a trend analysis at a statistically significant level. We evaluate the relation between FWI and spatial (altitude, latitude, and distance to the sea) variables to look for significant correlations. An analysis is performed at the geographic level by focusing on changes in concrete, relatively homogenous zones (subregions) to broadly study spatial patterns of change. The most relevant results are (1) the FWI shows an increasing trend across the study area (0.01 confidence level); (2) the FWI is determined by temperature variations on a multiyear scale, but annually by more volatile precipitation patterns; (3) the FWI does not uniformly behave across either space or time, and is subject to different variations in different zones; (4) summer and winter are the seasons with the most significant increase, and autumn is the only not significant season; (5) very high or extreme risks are increasingly prevalent across the territory, increasing wildfire risk and (6) the FWI more rapidly rises in areas further north, at a longer distance to the sea and at higher altitudes, with the Iberian System being the most affected region. The increase in wildfire risk requires putting in place more preventive measures. Our study results coincide with climatological trend studies on the region and bridge a knowledge gap as regards the historical climatology of the FWI.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions