Identifying Three-Dimensional Radiative Patterns Associated With Early Tropical Cyclone Intensification

IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Frederick Iat-Hin Tam, Tom Beucler, James H. Ruppert Jr.
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Cloud radiative feedback impacts early tropical cyclone (TC) intensification, but limitations in existing diagnostic frameworks make them unsuitable for studying asymmetric or transient radiative heating. We propose a linear Variational Encoder-Decoder (VED) framework to learn the hidden relationship between radiative anomalies and the surface intensification of realistic simulated TCs. The uncertainty of the VED model identifies periods when radiation has more importance for intensification. A close examination of the radiative pattern extracted by the VED model from a 20-member ensemble simulation on Typhoon Haiyan shows that longwave forcing from inner core deep convection and shallow clouds downshear contribute to intensification, with deep convection in the downshear-left quadrant having the most impact overall on the intensification of that TC. Our work demonstrates that machine learning can aid the discovery of thermodynamic-kinematic relationships without relying on axisymmetric or deterministic assumptions, paving the way for the objective discovery of processes leading to TC intensification in realistic conditions.

Abstract Image

识别与热带气旋早期增强有关的三维辐射模式
云辐射反馈影响早期热带气旋(TC)增强,但现有诊断框架的局限性使其不适合研究不对称或瞬态辐射加热。我们提出了一个线性变分编码器-解码器(VED)框架来学习真实模拟tc的辐射异常与表面强化之间的隐藏关系。VED模型的不确定性确定了辐射对增强更重要的时期。对台风“海燕”20元集合模拟中VED模式提取的辐射谱图进行了深入分析,结果表明,来自内核深层对流和浅云下切变的长波强迫有助于增强,其中下切变左象限的深层对流对台风“海燕”的增强影响最大。我们的工作表明,机器学习可以帮助发现热力学-运动学关系,而不依赖于轴对称或确定性假设,为客观发现现实条件下导致TC强化的过程铺平了道路。
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来源期刊
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
11.40
自引率
11.80%
发文量
241
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES) is committed to advancing the science of Earth systems modeling by offering high-quality scientific research through online availability and open access licensing. JAMES invites authors and readers from the international Earth systems modeling community. Open access. Articles are available free of charge for everyone with Internet access to view and download. Formal peer review. Supplemental material, such as code samples, images, and visualizations, is published at no additional charge. No additional charge for color figures. Modest page charges to cover production costs. Articles published in high-quality full text PDF, HTML, and XML. Internal and external reference linking, DOI registration, and forward linking via CrossRef.
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