Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Over Borneo Island: An Integrated Climate Risk Assessment

IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Mohammed Magdy Hamed, Ali Salem Al-Sakkaf, Mohammed Rady, Shamsuddin Shahid
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Abstract

Global warming has significantly increased the frequency and intensity of extreme events, which have catastrophic consequences for ecosystems and humans. Despite efforts to assess the impact of climate change on the potential risk of Borneo, most research has focused on partial regions, considering short timescales and a limited number of temperature and precipitation extremes indices to quantify the expected climate risks. This study employed a new method of climate risk assessment of Borneo based on the combined changes in various climate parameters. It estimated 23 climate indices at all grid points covering Borneo for three overlapping sub-periods (1951–1980, 1961–1990, 1991–2020). The modified Mann-Kendall test was employed to identify grid points exhibiting significant increasing or decreasing trends of each index for each sub-period. Finally, significant trends of 23 indices were integrated to estimate the potential climate risk indicator (RI) based on the combined changes in various climate parameters for each grid point and sub-period. Temperature indices showed a clear warming trend across Borneo Island, particularly in the eastern regions, with absolute temperature indices showing an increase of 0.5°C–2.5°C in 1991–2020 compared to the reference period (1951–1980). However, extreme cold temperatures have become less prevalent over the study period. There is a shift from light consecutive rainfall days towards more heavy and short-duration rainfall events. Therefore, there are indications of intensifying rainfall events over the island's southern half, counterbalanced by drying trends in the northern regions, especially Brunei. The spatial distribution of RI revealed an overall 184% increase in climate risk on the island in recent years (1991–2020) compared to the reference period. The highest rise in RI was in the central east of the island, mostly due to significant increases in rainfall and temperature indices. The findings can inform adaptation initiatives to manage escalating heat and flood risks while guiding additional research to explain further the complex climatic changes occurring in this ecologically and socially vital region.

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来源期刊
International Journal of Climatology
International Journal of Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
7.70%
发文量
417
审稿时长
4 months
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions
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