Bias and precision of predicted densities of overabundant kangaroo populations

IF 1.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY
Jim Hone, Melissa Snape
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Validated predictions of wildlife population density would be very useful for managers of overabundant wildlife and their effects on biodiversity. In this study such predictions were generated by modelling population dynamics of 18 non-culled populations of Eastern Grey Kangaroos (Macropus giganteus) across small biodiversity conservation reserves in Canberra. Predictions were validated using three analyses of independent, out-of-sample, data from 11 populations which were non-culled or culled. Association (analysis 1) showed observed and predicted densities were significantly positively correlated (R2 = 0.79, P = 0.045, n = 5) with unbiased slope and y intercept for non-culled populations, though observed and predicted densities of culled populations were unrelated (R2 = 0.32, P = 0.24, n = 6). Coverage (analysis 2) showed predicted densities were within the 95% confidence interval of observed densities in five of five non-culled populations and four of six culled populations, with one underestimate and one overestimate in the latter group. Bias (analysis 3) showed the mean bias (=observed – predicted) was 0.18 (±0.23 SE) kangaroos/ha for non-culled and 0.08 (±0.23 SE) for culled populations. The results have been used to adjust kangaroo management approaches in Canberra as part of adaptive management.

Abstract Image

预测过多袋鼠种群密度的偏差和精度
经过验证的野生动物种群密度预测将对管理过度丰富的野生动物及其对生物多样性的影响非常有用。在这项研究中,这些预测是通过模拟堪培拉小型生物多样性保护区内18个未被淘汰的东部灰袋鼠(Macropus giganteus)种群的种群动态得出的。通过对11个非剔除或剔除种群的独立样本外数据进行三次分析,验证了预测的有效性。相关性(分析1)显示,未被淘汰种群的观测密度和预测密度与无偏斜率和y截距呈显著正相关(R2 = 0.79, P = 0.045, n = 5),但被淘汰种群的观测密度与预测密度不相关(R2 = 0.32, P = 0.24, n = 6)。覆盖度(分析2)显示,5个非淘汰种群中的5个种群和6个淘汰种群中的4个种群的预测密度在观测密度的95%置信区间内,后者有1个低估和1个高估。偏倚(分析3)显示,未扑杀种群的平均偏倚(=观测-预测)为0.18(±0.23 SE)只/公顷,扑杀种群的平均偏倚为0.08(±0.23 SE)只/公顷。研究结果已被用于调整堪培拉的袋鼠管理方法,作为适应性管理的一部分。
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来源期刊
Ecological Management & Restoration
Ecological Management & Restoration Environmental Science-Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊介绍: Ecological Management & Restoration is a peer-reviewed journal with the dual aims of (i) reporting the latest science to assist ecologically appropriate management and restoration actions and (ii) providing a forum for reporting on these actions. Guided by an editorial board made up of researchers and practitioners, EMR seeks features, topical opinion pieces, research reports, short notes and project summaries applicable to Australasian ecosystems to encourage more regionally-appropriate management. Where relevant, contributions should draw on international science and practice and highlight any relevance to the global challenge of integrating biodiversity conservation in a rapidly changing world. Topic areas: Improved management and restoration of plant communities, fauna and habitat; coastal, marine and riparian zones; restoration ethics and philosophy; planning; monitoring and assessment; policy and legislation; landscape pattern and design; integrated ecosystems management; socio-economic issues and solutions; techniques and methodology; threatened species; genetic issues; indigenous land management; weeds and feral animal control; landscape arts and aesthetics; education and communication; community involvement.
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