Temperature Trends and Influence of the Base Period Selection on Climate Indices in the Mediterranean Region Over the Period 1961–2020

Abstract

In this study, the daily maximum and minimum temperatures measured over the period 1961–2020 by 18 stations located near the Mediterranean coast are analysed to evaluate temperature trends and to compute 10 climate indices, selected among those proposed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices to monitor the occurrence of climate extremes of temperature. The trend analysis is performed using the Seasonal-Kendall test. The results show statistically significant positive trends in both above-mentioned variables throughout the Mediterranean, although the rate of warming is more marked in the minimum than in the maximum temperature and is more evident in the western portion of the Mediterranean Basin from 1990 onward. The climate extremes indices are evaluated assuming two different base periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020). The shift forward of the base period involves a general rise in the percentile-based thresholds used for identifying temperature extremes, as a natural consequence of the current atmospheric warming, resulting in fewer warm events and more cold events since the 1990s using a warmer/later base period. The application of the Seasonal-Kendall test to the occurrence of extreme warm and cold events reveals that the western portion of the Mediterranean and the Adriatic Sea are the subregions most influenced by the base period update. This study demonstrates that the selection of the base period for the identification of extreme temperature events significantly impacts the results, and that the choice of a recent base period partially masks the ongoing atmospheric warming. The results suggest that the base period 1961–1990 might be more appropriate for climatological studies, as it provides a solid and stable baseline, and that attention must be paid when scientific results are shared with stakeholders, so as not to alter the communication of warnings and specific risks for the population.