Projecting Future Chronic Coastal Hazard Impacts, Hotspots, and Uncertainty at Regional Scale

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI:10.1029/2024EF005523
Meredith Leung, Laura Cagigal, Fernando Mendez, Peter Ruggiero
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Abstract

While there is high certainty that chronic coastal hazards like flooding and erosion are increasing due to climate change induced sea-level rise, there is high uncertainty surrounding the timing, intensity, and location of future hazard impacts. Assessments that quantify these aspects of future hazards are critical for adaptation planning under a changing climate and can reveal new insights into the drivers of coastal hazards. In particular, probabilistic simulations of future hazard impacts can improve these assessments by explicitly quantifying uncertainty and by better simulating dependence structures between the complex multivariate drivers of hazards. In this study, a regional-scale probabilistic assessment of climate change induced coastal hazards is conducted for the Cascadia region (Northern Washington to Northern California), USA during the 21st century. Three co-produced hazard proxies for beach safety, erosion, and flooding are quantified to identify areas of high hazard impacts and determine hazard uncertainty under three sea-level rise scenarios. A novel chronic coastal hazard hotspot indicator is introduced that identifies areas that may experience significant increases in hazard impacts compared to present day conditions. We find that beaches near the California-Oregon border and in Northern Washington have larger hazard impacts and hazard uncertainty due to their morphologic setting. Erosional hazards, relative to beach safety and coastal flooding, will increase the most in Cascadia during the 21st century under all sea-level rise scenarios. Finally, we find that hazard uncertainty associated with wave and water level variability exceeds the uncertainty associated with sea-level rise for most of the 21st century.

Abstract Image

在区域尺度上预测未来长期沿海灾害影响、热点和不确定性
由于气候变化引起的海平面上升,洪水和侵蚀等长期沿海灾害正在增加,这是非常确定的,但未来灾害影响的时间、强度和地点却存在很大的不确定性。量化未来灾害的这些方面的评估对于气候变化下的适应规划至关重要,可以揭示对沿海灾害驱动因素的新见解。特别是,未来灾害影响的概率模拟可以通过明确量化不确定性和更好地模拟灾害的复杂多变量驱动因素之间的依赖结构来改进这些评估。本研究对21世纪美国卡斯卡迪亚地区(北华盛顿至北加州)气候变化引起的沿海灾害进行了区域尺度的概率评估。在三种海平面上升情景下,对海滩安全、侵蚀和洪水等三种共同产生的危险指标进行了量化,以确定高危险影响区域,并确定危险的不确定性。介绍了一种新的慢性沿海灾害热点指标,该指标确定了与当前条件相比,可能经历显著增加的灾害影响的地区。我们发现靠近加州-俄勒冈州边界和华盛顿州北部的海滩由于其形态环境而具有更大的危害影响和危害不确定性。在所有海平面上升的情景下,与海滩安全和沿海洪水相关的侵蚀危害在21世纪将在卡斯卡迪亚增加最多。最后,我们发现在21世纪的大部分时间里,与波浪和水位变化相关的危险不确定性超过了与海平面上升相关的不确定性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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