Sensitivity of the Model of Methane Emission from Arctic Shelf Seas to Gas Exchange Parameterization

Abstract

There is considerable uncertainty about the methane emission from Arctic shelf seas. Methane fluxes in this region can be underestimated and play a significant role due to the large volume of gas contained in bottom sediments in the permafrost and gas hydrates. We analyzed the model sensitivity to the parameterization of gas exchange processes on the sea surface based on the numerical modeling of the transport of dissolved methane in Arctic seas. A dissolved methane transport model is included into the basic model of the ocean and sea ice SibCIOM developed at Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences. Methane emissions into the atmosphere were estimated with various parameterization of the gas exchange process in the “water–atmosphere” and “water–ice–atmosphere” systems with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The uncertainty of the estimate of annual methane emission amounted to 6–12% when considering different dependencies of gas exchange on wind. The scheme which considers the ice cover has a more pronounced influence on methane flux calculations: the uncertainty increased to 50–130%. Parameterization of the relation between ice cover and gas exchange can have a great effect on the calculated methane fluxes and lead to underestimation of its emission from Arctic shelf seas.