A rapid radiation epidemiology tool for the analysis of the propagation of radiation following a radiological dispersal device explosion

Abstract

Given the current state of global concerns, it is evident that the potential for attacks employing radiological dispersal devices (RDDs) against vulnerable targets, such as population and soft targets, is no longer a distant possibility. Thus, it is crucial for first responders and decision makers to rapidly understand how radiation can propagate across great distances in limited timeframes to effectively manage emergencies. By utilizing free-license computational codes, deliberate releases of radioactive material and their transmission from person to person might be simulated. In this study, the HotSpot code is employed to simulate a scenario involving the release of Co-60 subsequent to a RDD explosion in the city center of a major European city. Subsequently, the STEM code is used to simulate the spread of radiation from unaware individuals initially involved in the incident, comparing them to carriers of a chimeric viral infection specifically defined for this study. An attack in which 5000, 2500, and 1000 people are affected, respectively, is assumed for the scenarios. The recovery rates, mortality rates, and propagation of the radioactive substance throughout the territory are considered for a timeline of one month. The findings highlighted that, while the scenarios resulted in relatively minor health impacts for the affected population, they presented numerous challenges in emergency management as the spread of radiation extended to areas relatively far from the initial event over the considered timeframe. The combined use of HotSpot and STEM appeared to be a promising rapid radiation epidemiology tool for analyzing radiation propagation following a RDD explosion. Such a tool could greatly aid in the effective management of incidents of this nature.