Revisiting Slip Deficit Rates and Its Insights Into Large and Slow Earthquakes at the Nankai Subduction Zone

IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
Raymundo Plata-Martinez, Takeshi Iinuma, Fumiaki Tomita, Yasuyuki Nakamura, Takuya Nishimura, Takane Hori
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The Nankai subduction zone presents significant seismic and tsunami risks, given its historical earthquakes exceeding magnitude 8 and the expectations of similar future events. Slow earthquakes, common at the shallow and deep plate interface, result from different frictional properties linked to interplate slip deficit accumulation. This study estimates slip deficit rates at the Nankai subduction zone using land and ocean-bottom geodetic data. Previous estimates encountered limitations, often smoothing slip deficits, omitting observational error differences between ocean-floor and land data, and relying on homogeneous structure models. To address these issues, we employ a novel trans-dimensional reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. This approach dynamically adjusts slip parameters, accommodating data resolution and producing a flexible slip distribution without predetermined spatial constraints. Additionally, it automatically weights data for observational errors and integrates elastic Green functions from a 3D structure of the Nankai region. Our results provide a finer, heterogeneous slip distribution, improving estimates in inland regions. However, limitations remain offshore in areas with sparse data. We revised the spatial distribution of Nankai slow earthquakes and confirmed a good agreement with intermediate slip deficit rates, identifying coupled and uncoupled regions. High slip deficit rates align with rupture areas of historic large earthquakes. Slow earthquakes occur at frictionally weak plate interfaces, and shallow slow earthquakes may result from subducting relief heterogeneities with important pore fluid pressure effects. We introduce an updated distribution of slip deficit rates for the Nankai subduction zone, considering observed slip deficit rates and the fast and slow earthquake occurrence.

Abstract Image

南开俯冲带滑动亏缺率及其对大、慢地震的启示
考虑到南开俯冲带历史上超过8级的地震和未来类似事件的预期,南开俯冲带具有重大的地震和海啸风险。在浅、深板块界面上常见的慢震是由与板块间滑动亏缺积累有关的不同摩擦特性引起的。本文利用陆地和海底大地测量资料估算了南开俯冲带的滑动亏缺率。以前的估计遇到了局限性,通常是平滑滑动缺陷,忽略了海底和陆地数据之间的观测误差差异,并依赖于同质结构模型。为了解决这些问题,我们采用了一种新颖的跨维可逆跳跃马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法。该方法动态调整滑动参数,适应数据分辨率,产生灵活的滑动分布,没有预定的空间约束。此外,该系统还能自动对观测误差进行加权,并整合南开地区三维结构的弹性格林函数。我们的结果提供了更精细的非均匀滑动分布,改进了内陆地区的估计。然而,在海上数据稀少的地区,限制仍然存在。修正了南开慢震的空间分布,确认了与中间滑动亏缺率的一致性,识别出了耦合区和非耦合区。高滑动亏缺率与历史上大地震的破裂区一致。缓震发生在摩擦弱板块界面,浅源缓震可能是俯冲起伏非均质性所致,具有重要的孔隙流体压力效应。考虑到观测到的滑动亏缺率和快、慢地震的发生,本文介绍了南开俯冲带滑动亏缺率的更新分布。
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来源期刊
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Earth and Planetary Sciences-Geophysics
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
15.40%
发文量
559
期刊介绍: The Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth serves as the premier publication for the breadth of solid Earth geophysics including (in alphabetical order): electromagnetic methods; exploration geophysics; geodesy and gravity; geodynamics, rheology, and plate kinematics; geomagnetism and paleomagnetism; hydrogeophysics; Instruments, techniques, and models; solid Earth interactions with the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and climate; marine geology and geophysics; natural and anthropogenic hazards; near surface geophysics; petrology, geochemistry, and mineralogy; planet Earth physics and chemistry; rock mechanics and deformation; seismology; tectonophysics; and volcanology. JGR: Solid Earth has long distinguished itself as the venue for publication of Research Articles backed solidly by data and as well as presenting theoretical and numerical developments with broad applications. Research Articles published in JGR: Solid Earth have had long-term impacts in their fields. JGR: Solid Earth provides a venue for special issues and special themes based on conferences, workshops, and community initiatives. JGR: Solid Earth also publishes Commentaries on research and emerging trends in the field; these are commissioned by the editors, and suggestion are welcome.
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