The spatiotemporal patterns of the beet webworm (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) in China and possible dynamics under future climate scenarios.

Abstract

The beet webworm (BWW), Loxostege sticticalis (L.), is a notorious migratory agriculture pest of crops and fodder plants, inducing sudden outbreaks and huge losses of food and forage production. Quantifying its spatiotemporal patterns and possible dynamics under future climate scenarios may have significant implications for management policies and practices against this destructive agriculture pest. In this paper, a database containing nearly 7,000 occurrence records for the spatiotemporal distribution of BWW in China was established and its possible dynamics under future climate scenarios predicted using Maxent. We found that BWW could affect a vast geographic range of Northern China, about one third of the country's land area. The beet webworm overwintered in most of its distribution regions. Maxent model found a northward movement and distribution reduction for BWW in China under future climate scenarios. The occurrence and overwintering regions will move northward about 0.3°N-0.9°N under warming climate scenarios, and about 40%-70% of the suitable habitat and overwintering habitat will disappear by 2100. Most of the northward movement and suitable area reduction likely will happen in 2 decades. Given the vast affected area, the abrupt outbreaks, the diverse host plants, the sensitivity to climate change, as well as their long-distance migration capacity, global scale research, and monitoring the population dynamics of BWW are essential for developing effective management strategies and mitigating its impact on agriculture and ecosystems.