A multi-objective optimization approach for interprovincial carbon emission reduction in China: Considering industrial structure and ownership attributes.

Abstract

Balancing economic growth with carbon emission control requires the coordination of policy preferences for economic and carbon reduction goals, as well as the low-carbon transformation of industrial and ownership structures. This study employs a multi-objective input-output optimization model to investigate the trade-offs among maximizing GDP growth, minimizing carbon emissions, and minimizing energy consumption within the planning period of 2017-2035 in China. The model accounts for the heterogeneity of industrial structures and ownership attributes, examining both national aggregates and the adjustment paths and ownership trends across different provinces. The findings reveal: (1) Sectors with high output and low energy consumption are growing, while high pollution and high energy-consuming sectors are declining, driven primarily by technological levels, followed by policy and development preferences. (2) Domestic capital expanding into high technology and capital-intensive sectors, HMT capital favoring the economically developed high technology regions, and foreign investment declining. (3) Regional adjustment in high-value or high-energy-consumption sectors are more pronounced in central and western provinces and less economically developed regions, while industries that are neither high-energy-consumption nor high-value show greater increases in resource-rich provinces with better infrastructure.