Synergistic allocation of carbon emission and energy quotas: A balancing act under carbon peaking constraints.

Abstract

Carbon emissions quotas (CEQ) and energy quotas (EQ) have been recognized as effective policy tools for promoting energy conservation and emission reduction. However, existing methods have considerable limitations in meeting the phased requirements of carbon peaking constraints and synergistically allocating EQ and CEQ. Therefore, we propose a synergistic allocation method for CEQ and EQ to balance economic development and environmental sustainability under carbon peak constraints. Using 30 provinces in China as case studies, a dual-layer allocation model was constructed by integrating an indicator method with an improved ZSG-DEA model to achieve the coordinated management and target control of CEQ and EQ. Reaching energy and carbon emission targets under peak constraints, this approach avoids excessive reductions in regional quota usage rights, and promotes equitable and efficient interprovincial quota distribution. A high correlation was noted between CEQ and EQ among the provinces, highlighting the necessity for synergistic quota management. Energy-intensive regions and cleaner western regions require opposite quotaadjustment strategies, resulting in quota surpluses and deficits across the provinces. Reductions in energy-intensive provinces such as Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Xinjiang should be maintained within 20%, whereas cleaner western provinces are expected to achieve quota surpluses. This differentiated adjustment strategy helps to narrow the interprovincial quota gap and promotes regional coordination. Under peak carbon targets, economic growth requires the combined efforts of a quota allocation mechanism, efficient use strategies, and economic structural transformation. These findings can inform multiscale environmental resource quota allocation, contributing to carbon peaks and development goals.