Effects of demographic and technological trends on the mitigation of Israel’s environmental footprint

Abstract

Nations worldwide are implementing greenhouse gas mitigation measures and promoting the efficient use of natural resources to reduce human pressure on the environment and to increase sustainability. Most of these efforts focus on technological advancement and emphasize the need for economic growth, which will enable further development. However, the impact of demographic trends on sustainability and potential response measures has so far received little attention. Here we develop a model to explore a nation’s potential for environmental footprint mitigation over time given existing and expected demographic trends, consumption patterns and technological advancements. The model is used to test the effects of different scenarios (combinations of mitigation factors) on Israel’s land, water and carbon footprints by 2050 as a case study. The analysis reveals that even when implementing an advanced scenario that combines major technological and behavioural changes, the nation’s mitigation goals will not be achieved given the current demographic trend. Our findings emphasize the need for models that test the effects of combinations of factors on natural resources and the environment. Such models could be valuable tools for decision makers when considering alternative pathways that better support the sustainability and decarbonization of nations. Assumptions of technological and social adaptations to mitigate environmental impacts may be overstating potential gains in the face of population growth, according to this analysis of Israeli national data.