The Effect of Pseudo-Global Warming on the Weather-Climate System of Africa in a Convection-Permitting Model

Abstract

The African easterly jet (AEJ) and the West African Monsoon (WAM) can largely modulate high-impact weather over Africa and the tropical Atlantic. How these features will change with a warming climate is just starting to be addressed due to global climate model limitations in resolving convection. We employ a novel regional setup for an atmospheric convection-permitting model alongside the pseudo-global warming (PGW) approach to address climate change impacts on the weather-climate system of Africa during a short period of high-impact weather. Our findings indicate that the AEJ and WAM may intensify in a future warming climate scenario. Precipitation is shown to increase over Guinea Highlands and Cameroon Mountains and shift southward due to a latitudinal expansion and increase of deep convection closer to the equator. This has relevant ramifications for the livelihood of communities that depend on water-fed crops in tropical Africa.