Climate Change-Driven Long-Term Stability Risks of Ubiquitous Moraine Dams in Glacial Lakes on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: A Multiphysics Coupling Evolution Perspective

IF 4.6 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-12-17 DOI:10.1029/2024gl109350

Jia-Qing Zhou, Qi-Long Li, Yi-Feng Chen, Changdong Li, Jiu Jimmy Jiao, Huiming Tang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Glacial lake-moraine dam systems are widespread in cold alpine environments such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Without climate change, the lake-dam system exhibits stably dynamic evolution on a hydrological annual cycle. However, climate change may drive subtle alterations in the system's evolution. We developed a fully coupled Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical simulation platform considering ice-water phase change, showing robust performance under CMIP6-derived boundary conditions. Using this platform, we simulated climate warming-driven multiphysics responses and dam stability evolutions of a homogeneous, simplified conceptual model of the lake-dam system. We identified critical temperature thresholds for permanently frozen area thawing and abrupt changes in dam stability of this lake-dam system. Considering the current slope stability situations on the QTP, the SSP 5–8.5 climate warming scenario is conservatively anticipated to pose significant geological safety risks due to potential disaster chains from glacial lake failures. Our study provides insights into profound geological process evolutions driven by climate change.

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来源期刊

Geophysical Research Letters 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

9.00

自引率

9.60%

发文量

1588

审稿时长

2.2 months

期刊介绍： Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.