Land Use Conflicts Identification and Multi‐Scenario Simulation in Mountain Cities, Southwest China: A Coupled Structural and Functional Perspective

Abstract

Land use conflicts (LUCs) arise during land use change, causing an uncoordinated spatial structure of the land and negatively affecting the synergistic development of multifunctionality, especially in mountain cities. Previous studies have focused on identifying and measuring land use structural conflicts (LUSC), with less attention paid to land use functional conflicts (LUFC), and a lack of simulation for future multi‐scenarios. Thus, taking Chongqing as an example, based on the perspective of LUSC–LUFC coupling, this study constructed a comprehensive conflict index to identify and assess LUCs, then applied the PLUS model to predict LUCs under three development scenarios in 2030. This study found that (1) there was a significant positive spatial association between LUSC and LUFC, with high–high agglomeration types in areas of severe LUCs and low–low agglomeration types in areas of light LUCs. (2) During 2000–2020, the LUCs in Chongqing displayed a trend of upward and then downward from 2000 to 2020, with significant agglomeration in their spatial pattern. (3) Two typical areas of LUCs intensification were identified, namely the topographic transition zone located in the Daba and Wuling mountains and the urban–rural interface in the Chongqing metropolitan area. (4) In 2030, the LUCs in Chongqing manifest an overall mitigation in the ecological protection (EP) scenario, while displaying an intensification in the natural development (ND) and economic development (ED) scenarios. Based on the types of spatial interaction between LUSC and LUFC, land use optimization strategies were formulated. The findings will provide scientific references for sustainable land use management decisions in Chongqing and other mountainous cities.