Temporal disruption in tuberculosis incidence patterns during COVID-19: a time series analysis in China.

IF 2.3 3区 生物学 Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
PeerJ Pub Date : 2024-12-13 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI:10.7717/peerj.18573
Jiarui Zhang, Zhong Sun, Qi Deng, Yidan Yu, Xingyue Dian, Juan Luo, Thilakavathy Karuppiah, Narcisse Joseph, Guozhong He
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Despite extensive knowledge of tuberculosis (TB) and its control, there remains a significant gap in understanding the comprehensive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB incidence patterns. This study aims to explore the impact of COVID-19 on the pattern of pulmonary tuberculosis in China and examine the application of time series models in the analysis of these patterns, providing valuable insights for TB prevention and control.

Methods: We used pre-COVID-19 pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) data (2007-2018) to fit SARIMA, Prophet, and LSTM models, assessing their ability to predict PTB incidence trends. These models were then applied to compare the predicted PTB incidence patterns with actual reported cases during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2023), using deviations between predicted and actual values to reflect the impact of COVID-19 countermeasures on PTB incidence.

Results: Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, PTB incidence in China exhibited a steady decline with strong seasonal fluctuations, characterized by two annual peaks-one in March and another in December. These seasonal trends persisted until 2019. During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant reduction in PTB cases, with actual reported cases falling below the predicted values. The disruption in PTB incidence appears to be temporary, as 2023 data indicate a gradual return to pre-pandemic trends, though the incidence rate remains slightly lower than pre-COVID levels. Additionally, we compared the fitting and forecasting performance of the SARIMA, Prophet, and LSTM models using RMSE (root mean squared error), MAE (mean absolute error), and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) indexes prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. We found that the Prophet model had the lowest values for all three indexes, demonstrating the best fitting and prediction performance.

Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a temporary but significant impact on PTB incidence in China, leading to a reduction in reported cases during the pandemic. However, as pandemic control measures relax and the healthcare system stabilizes, PTB incidence patterns are expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels. The Prophet model demonstrated the best predictive performance and proves to be a valuable tool for analyzing PTB trends and guiding public health planning in the post-pandemic era.

COVID-19期间结核病发病模式的时间中断:中国的时间序列分析。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
PeerJ
PeerJ MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
3.70%
发文量
1665
审稿时长
10 weeks
期刊介绍: PeerJ is an open access peer-reviewed scientific journal covering research in the biological and medical sciences. At PeerJ, authors take out a lifetime publication plan (for as little as $99) which allows them to publish articles in the journal for free, forever. PeerJ has 5 Nobel Prize Winners on the Board; they have won several industry and media awards; and they are widely recognized as being one of the most interesting recent developments in academic publishing.
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