Woody Cover Fuels Large Wildfire Risk in the Eastern US

Abstract

Large wildfires are increasing in the eastern United States; however, what factors are heightening large wildfire risk remains unclear. Increases in fuel loads from woody encroachment and canopy infilling have been associated with increasing wildfire risk in other US regions. Understanding if and where woody cover increases wildfire risk can help direct proactive fuels management. We characterize multi-scale changes in woody cover through time and assess the relationship between woody cover and large wildfire (>200 ha) occurrence in the eastern US between 1990 and 2020. We found a 37% increase in woody cover across the eastern US, with increases occurring in every ecoregion. The odds of large wildfire increased as woody cover increased in most central and southern ecoregions, where large wildfires were typically more likely in areas with high woody cover (70%–100% cover). Our findings suggest fuels management will be an important tool for reducing large wildfire risk.