Response of South Asia PM2.5 pollution to ammonia emission changes and associated impacts on human health

IF 10.3 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environment International Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI:10.1016/j.envint.2024.109207

Yuanlin Wang, Eiko Nemitz, Samuel J. Tomlinson, Edward J. Carnell, Liquan Yao, Janice Scheffler, Tomas Liska, Clare Pearson, Ulrike Dragosits, Chandra Venkataraman, Srinidhi Balasubramanian, Rachel Beck, Mark A. Sutton, Massimo Vieno

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Abstract

Countries in South Asia are suffering severe PM_2.5 pollution with rapid economic development, impacting human health and the environment. Whilst much attention has been given to understanding the contribution of primary emissions, the contribution of agriculture to PM_2.5 concentrations, especially from agricultural ammonia (NH₃) emissions, remains less explored. Using an advanced regional atmospheric chemistry and transport modelling system (WRF-EMEP) with a new estimate of anthropogenic NH₃ emissions inputs, we estimate the influence of agricultural NH₃ emissions on surface PM_2.5 in South Asia and evaluate the health impacts and the economic losses attributable to PM_2.5 in 2018. Results show that WRF-EMEP can reproduce magnitudes and variations of PM_2.5 well, with a high annual mean PM_2.5 concentration that exceeds 120 µg/m² and mainly appeared in the Indo-Gangetic Plain. We estimate 2,228,000 (95 % Confidence Interval: 2,052,000–2,400,000) premature deaths and US$ 596,000 (95 % CI: 549,000–642,000) million in economic losses are attributable to total ambient PM_2.5 under the current emissions. We calculate that NH₃ emissions are associated with 11 % of the annual average PM_2.5 concentrations across South Asia. Changes in PM_2.5 concentrations follow a non-linear response to NH₃ emissions reductions, highlighting increased efficiency with 70 %–100 % reductions in NH₃ emissions reductions. We estimate that 247,000 (227,000–265,000) premature deaths and US$ 66,000 (61,000–71,000) million economic losses through this pathway can be attributed to NH₃ emissions. These findings confirm that in the current NH₃-rich chemical environment of South Asia, the efficiency of PM_2.5 reduction is only moderately sensitive to the reduction in intensity of NH₃ emissions until emissions are cut very severely. Thus, SO₂, NO_x and NH₃ emissions controls need to be considered jointly for greater mitigation of ambient secondary PM_2.5 in South Asia.

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随着经济的快速发展，南亚国家正在遭受严重的 PM2.5 污染，对人类健康和环境造成了影响。虽然人们对了解一次排放的贡献给予了很大关注，但对农业对 PM2.5 浓度的贡献，特别是农业氨（NH3）排放的贡献，仍然探讨较少。利用先进的区域大气化学和传输模拟系统（WRF-EMEP）以及对人为 NH3 排放输入的新估算，我们估算了农业 NH3 排放对南亚地表 PM2.5 的影响，并评估了 2018 年 PM2.5 造成的健康影响和经济损失。结果表明，WRF-EMEP 可以很好地再现 PM2.5 的大小和变化，PM2.5 的年均浓度超过 120 µg/m2，主要出现在印度-甘肃平原。我们估计，在目前的排放情况下，环境 PM2.5 总量会导致 228,000 人（95 % 置信区间：2,052,000-2,400,000）过早死亡和 596,000 美元（95 % 置信区间：549,000-642,000）的经济损失。根据我们的计算，整个南亚地区 11% 的 PM2.5 年平均浓度与 NH3 排放有关。PM2.5 浓度的变化与 NH3 排放量的减少呈非线性反应，突出表现为 NH3 排放量减少 70%-100% 时效率的提高。我们估计，通过这一途径造成的 24.7 万（22.7 万-26.5 万）人过早死亡和 6.6 万（6.1 万-7.1 万）万美元的经济损失可归因于 NH3 排放。这些研究结果证实，在南亚目前富含 NH3 的化学环境中，PM2.5 的减排效率对 NH3 排放强度的降低只有适度的敏感性，直到排放被大幅削减为止。因此，需要联合考虑二氧化硫、氮氧化物和 NH3 的排放控制，以进一步减缓南亚的环境二次 PM2.5。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Environment International 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

21.90

自引率

3.40%

发文量

734

审稿时长

2.8 months

期刊介绍： Environmental Health publishes manuscripts focusing on critical aspects of environmental and occupational medicine, including studies in toxicology and epidemiology, to illuminate the human health implications of exposure to environmental hazards. The journal adopts an open-access model and practices open peer review. It caters to scientists and practitioners across all environmental science domains, directly or indirectly impacting human health and well-being. With a commitment to enhancing the prevention of environmentally-related health risks, Environmental Health serves as a public health journal for the community and scientists engaged in matters of public health significance concerning the environment.