{"title":"A lasso-based model to predict lateral lymph node metastasis in unifocal papillary thyroid carcinoma with central lymph node metastasis.","authors":"Yi Li, Yunhan Ma, Luming Zheng, Qingqing He","doi":"10.1007/s12020-024-04132-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To screen the risk factors for lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in unifocal papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) with central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) and create a corresponding model.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A retrospective analysis of 362 patients from our hospital was performed. All patients were randomized into training and validation groups in a ratio of 7:3. Risk factors were screened using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and logistic regression analysis.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The analysis indicated that upper location, number of CLNM ≥ 3, rate of CLNM ≥ 0.172, prelaryngeal LNM, pretracheal LNM, and tall cell variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma (TCV-PTC) are independent risk factors. Visualizing the model with a nomogram, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.773 for the training group and 0.779 for the validation group. This confirms the stability and outstanding accuracy of the model. Also, the calibration curves and clinical descision curves reflect strong calibration,offering potential clinical benefits.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The risk factors for LLNM include metastasis to the prelaryngeal lymph nodes, metastasis to the pretracheal lymph nodes, location in the upper level, number of metastases ≥3 in CLNM, TCV-PTC and metastasis rate ≥0.172. A nomogram incorporating these factors exhibits excellent predictive value and stability.</p>","PeriodicalId":49211,"journal":{"name":"Endocrine","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Endocrine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-024-04132-4","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Objective: To screen the risk factors for lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in unifocal papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) with central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) and create a corresponding model.
Methods: A retrospective analysis of 362 patients from our hospital was performed. All patients were randomized into training and validation groups in a ratio of 7:3. Risk factors were screened using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and logistic regression analysis.
Results: The analysis indicated that upper location, number of CLNM ≥ 3, rate of CLNM ≥ 0.172, prelaryngeal LNM, pretracheal LNM, and tall cell variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma (TCV-PTC) are independent risk factors. Visualizing the model with a nomogram, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.773 for the training group and 0.779 for the validation group. This confirms the stability and outstanding accuracy of the model. Also, the calibration curves and clinical descision curves reflect strong calibration,offering potential clinical benefits.
Conclusions: The risk factors for LLNM include metastasis to the prelaryngeal lymph nodes, metastasis to the pretracheal lymph nodes, location in the upper level, number of metastases ≥3 in CLNM, TCV-PTC and metastasis rate ≥0.172. A nomogram incorporating these factors exhibits excellent predictive value and stability.
期刊介绍：
Well-established as a major journal in today’s rapidly advancing experimental and clinical research areas, Endocrine publishes original articles devoted to basic (including molecular, cellular and physiological studies), translational and clinical research in all the different fields of endocrinology and metabolism. Articles will be accepted based on peer-reviews, priority, and editorial decision. Invited reviews, mini-reviews and viewpoints on relevant pathophysiological and clinical topics, as well as Editorials on articles appearing in the Journal, are published. Unsolicited Editorials will be evaluated by the editorial team. Outcomes of scientific meetings, as well as guidelines and position statements, may be submitted. The Journal also considers special feature articles in the field of endocrine genetics and epigenetics, as well as articles devoted to novel methods and techniques in endocrinology.
Endocrine covers controversial, clinical endocrine issues. Meta-analyses on endocrine and metabolic topics are also accepted. Descriptions of single clinical cases and/or small patients studies are not published unless of exceptional interest. However, reports of novel imaging studies and endocrine side effects in single patients may be considered. Research letters and letters to the editor related or unrelated to recently published articles can be submitted.
Endocrine covers leading topics in endocrinology such as neuroendocrinology, pituitary and hypothalamic peptides, thyroid physiological and clinical aspects, bone and mineral metabolism and osteoporosis, obesity, lipid and energy metabolism and food intake control, insulin, Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes, hormones of male and female reproduction, adrenal diseases pediatric and geriatric endocrinology, endocrine hypertension and endocrine oncology.
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