The Analysis and the Impact of Surface Temperature Anomalies on the Health of Residents in the River Niger Basin Development Authority Area, West Africa

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of surface temperature anomalies on the health of residents within the River Niger Basin Development Authority (RIBDA) enclave, which covers Nigeria, Niger, and Mali in West Africa, with a focus on the regional implications for public health. Historical climate data from 1985 to 2014, sourced from the Climatic Research Unit Time-Series, Version 3.22 (CRU TS 3.22), was analyzed to comprehend past climate patterns and establish a baseline for future comparisons. Predictions for future climate conditions (2015–2044) were derived by adjusting the CRU data using temperature projections from the Community Climate System Model 4 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. To assess the potential impacts of these climate changes, particularly during the boreal summer season of July-August-September (JAS), the study utilized the Hydrology, Entomology, and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS). Findings indicate that surface temperature can intricately influence disease transmission, with varied effects on parameters such as Ro, EIR, prevalence, and immunity index. Observations revealed fluctuations in temperature anomalies over the years, with negative anomalies in 1991–1995 and positive anomalies in subsequent years. Although precise predictions for 2016–2044 are challenging based solely on data trends from 1985 to 2015, continued temperature rises could potentially lead to increased disease prevalence and decreased immunity index. Moreover, the analysis identified a notable temporal increase in mean annual temperature and mean annual maximum temperature from 1999 to 2020, suggesting a faster warming trend in maximum temperatures compared to minimum temperatures. This increase in temperature variability may alter the onset and cessation dates of the rainy season, affecting water availability, accessibility, and consumption, consequently fostering conditions conducive to health-related diseases. By incorporating predicted long-term temperature changes due to greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining current inter-annual climate patterns, this approach allows researchers to anticipate potential future health implications in the studied regions.