Widespread outdoor exposure to uncompensable heat stress with warming

Abstract

Previous studies projected an increasing risk of uncompensable heat stress indoors in a warming climate. However, little is known about the timing and extent of this risk for those engaged in essential outdoor activities, such as water collection and farming. Here, we employ a physically-based human energy balance model, which considers radiative, wind, and key physiological effects, to project global risk of uncompensable heat stress outdoors using bias-corrected climate model outputs. Focusing on farmers (approximately 850 million people), our model shows that an ensemble median 2.8% (15%) would be subject to several days of uncompensable heat stress yearly at 2 (4) °C of warming relative to preindustrial. Focusing on people who must walk outside to access drinking water (approximately 700 million people), 3.4% (23%) would be impacted at 2 (4) °C of warming. Outdoor work would need to be completed at night or in the early morning during these events. Farmers and people collecting drinking water outside are projected to be at risk of not achieving sufficient heat dissipation to maintain a stable body temperature at 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, according to an analysis based on a physically based model and heat stress scenarios.