Mark N. Costantini, Maeve Madigan, Luca Mantani, James M. Moore
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
We present a detailed mathematical study of the Monte Carlo replica method as applied in the global fitting literature from the high-energy physics theory community. For the first time, we provide a rigorous derivation of the parameter distributions implied by the method, and show that, whilst they agree with Bayesian posteriors for linear models, they disagree otherwise. We proceed to numerically quantify the disagreement between the Monte Carlo replica method and the Bayesian method in the context of two phenomenologically relevant scenarios: fits of the SMEFT Wilson coefficients, and fits of PDFs (albeit in a toy scenario). In both scenarios, we find that uncertainty estimates of the quantities of interest are discrepant between the two approaches when non-linearity is relevant. Our findings motivate future investigation of Bayesian methodologies for global PDF fits, especially in the context of simultaneous determination of PDFs and SMEFT Wilson coefficients.
期刊介绍:
The aim of the Journal of High Energy Physics (JHEP) is to ensure fast and efficient online publication tools to the scientific community, while keeping that community in charge of every aspect of the peer-review and publication process in order to ensure the highest quality standards in the journal.
Consequently, the Advisory and Editorial Boards, composed of distinguished, active scientists in the field, jointly establish with the Scientific Director the journal''s scientific policy and ensure the scientific quality of accepted articles.
JHEP presently encompasses the following areas of theoretical and experimental physics:
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Mostly Solvable Models
Astroparticles
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Mostly Weak Interactions
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Quantum Field Theory (phenomenology)
Strings and Branes
Phenomenological Aspects of Supersymmetry
Mostly Strong Interactions (phenomenology).