Crop-Specific Emission Projection Suggests Peaking of Agricultural N2O by the Middle Century

Abstract

Agriculture is the largest anthropogenic source of N₂O emissions and plays a crucial role in global greenhouse gas mitigation. In an increasingly populated world with growing food demands, a precise and high-resolution spatial prediction of agricultural N₂O emissions becomes essential in reducing global emissions. In this study, an integrated assessment model coupled with the land cover downscaling module is employed to predict crop-specific N₂O emissions at a 0.05° resolution under various SSP-RCP scenarios from 2025 to 2100. Our findings show that global agricultural N₂O emissions will peak around 2065, ranging from 5.2 to 6.6 Tg N a^–1. Corn cultivation is the primary N₂O contributor, while rice production will produce fewer emissions and peak before 2025. The emission hotspots are concentrated in western Europe, India, eastern China, and the west coast and east-central region of the USA. By 2100, the crop-specific N₂O emissions in China are predicted to decrease below the levels observed in 2015, while the emissions in the USA and India may double in some socio-economic pathways. Our projection of N₂O emission patterns is supportive of implementing targeted policies and strategies to achieve global emission reduction targets.