Food web analysis shows an exacerbated dependence of zooplankton on detritus in oligotrophic systems due to ocean warming

Abstract

Ocean warming can affect plankton both directly, through altered metabolic activities, and indirectly, modifying the physical–chemical properties of the water column, with possible effects on ecosystem functioning. To evaluate the combined action of warming-related physiological responses and environmental changes on plankton assemblage functioning, we carried out a long-term analysis (from 1994 to 2019) of the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) dataset where ocean warming and stratification have driven a decrease in net primary production over the last decade. Using the time series of plankton observations, we assembled 1000 replicates of a food web model for each year. We observed that the total flow of matter through the model remained constant over time, despite the increased oligotrophication, due to global warming, after 2014. In fact, the plankton food web remained robust through re-modulated trophic interactions with an increased detritivory to herbivory ratio of the food web over time. Moreover, there was difficulty to re-establish broken trophic connections of the food web (increased relative internal ascendency) due to global warming. Thanks to trophic plasticity, the reduced zooplankton dependence on herbivory was compensated by significant increase in the dependence on carnivory and detritivory, highlighting the crucial role of trophic interactions in buffering significant environmental short-term changes.