On crop yield modelling, predicting, and forecasting and addressing the common issues in published studies

IF 5.4 2区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Patrick Filippi, Si Yang Han, Thomas F.A. Bishop
{"title":"On crop yield modelling, predicting, and forecasting and addressing the common issues in published studies","authors":"Patrick Filippi, Si Yang Han, Thomas F.A. Bishop","doi":"10.1007/s11119-024-10212-2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>There has been a recent surge in the number of studies that aim to model crop yield using data-driven approaches. This has largely come about due to the increasing amounts of remote sensing (e.g. satellite imagery) and precision agriculture data available (e.g. high-resolution crop yield monitor data), as well as the abundance of machine learning modelling approaches. However, there are several common issues in published studies in the field of precision agriculture (PA) that must be addressed. This includes the terminology used in relation to crop yield modelling, predicting, forecasting, and interpolating, as well as the way that models are calibrated and validated. As a typical example, many studies will take a crop yield map or several plots within a field from a single season, build a model with satellite or Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) imagery, validate using data-splitting or some kind of cross-validation (e.g. k-fold), and say that it is a ‘prediction’ or ‘forecast’ of crop yield. However, this poses a problem as the approach is not testing the forecasting ability of the model, as it is built on the same season that it is then validating with, thus giving a substantial overestimation of the value for decision-making, such as an application of fertiliser in-season. This is an all-too-common flaw in the logic construct of many published studies. Moving forward, it is essential that clear definitions and guidelines for data-driven yield modelling and validation are outlined so that there is a greater connection between the goal of the study, and the actual study outputs/outcomes. To demonstrate this, the current study uses a case study dataset from a collection of large neighbouring farms in New South Wales, Australia. The dataset includes 160 yield maps of winter wheat (<i>Triticum aestivum</i>) covering 26,400 hectares over a 10-year period (2014–2023). Machine learning crop yield models are built at 30 m spatial resolution with a suite of predictor data layers that relate to crop yield. This includes datasets that represent soil variation, terrain, weather, and satellite imagery of the crop. Predictions are made at both the within-field (30 m), and field resolution. Crop yield predictions are useful for an array of applications, so four different experiments were set up to reflect different scenarios. This included Experiment 1: forecasting yield mid-season (e.g. for mid-season fertilisation), Experiment 2: forecasting yield late-season (e.g. for late-season logistics/forward selling), Experiment 3: predicting yield in a previous season for a field with no yield data in a season, and Experiment 4: predicting yield in a previous season for a field with some yield data (e.g. two combine harvesters, but only one was fitted with a yield monitor). This study showcases how different model calibration and validation approaches clearly impact prediction quality, and therefore how they should be interpreted in data-driven crop yield modelling studies. This is key for ensuring that the wealth of data-driven crop yield modelling studies not only contribute to the science, but also deliver actual value to growers, industry, and governments.</p>","PeriodicalId":20423,"journal":{"name":"Precision Agriculture","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Precision Agriculture","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11119-024-10212-2","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

There has been a recent surge in the number of studies that aim to model crop yield using data-driven approaches. This has largely come about due to the increasing amounts of remote sensing (e.g. satellite imagery) and precision agriculture data available (e.g. high-resolution crop yield monitor data), as well as the abundance of machine learning modelling approaches. However, there are several common issues in published studies in the field of precision agriculture (PA) that must be addressed. This includes the terminology used in relation to crop yield modelling, predicting, forecasting, and interpolating, as well as the way that models are calibrated and validated. As a typical example, many studies will take a crop yield map or several plots within a field from a single season, build a model with satellite or Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) imagery, validate using data-splitting or some kind of cross-validation (e.g. k-fold), and say that it is a ‘prediction’ or ‘forecast’ of crop yield. However, this poses a problem as the approach is not testing the forecasting ability of the model, as it is built on the same season that it is then validating with, thus giving a substantial overestimation of the value for decision-making, such as an application of fertiliser in-season. This is an all-too-common flaw in the logic construct of many published studies. Moving forward, it is essential that clear definitions and guidelines for data-driven yield modelling and validation are outlined so that there is a greater connection between the goal of the study, and the actual study outputs/outcomes. To demonstrate this, the current study uses a case study dataset from a collection of large neighbouring farms in New South Wales, Australia. The dataset includes 160 yield maps of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) covering 26,400 hectares over a 10-year period (2014–2023). Machine learning crop yield models are built at 30 m spatial resolution with a suite of predictor data layers that relate to crop yield. This includes datasets that represent soil variation, terrain, weather, and satellite imagery of the crop. Predictions are made at both the within-field (30 m), and field resolution. Crop yield predictions are useful for an array of applications, so four different experiments were set up to reflect different scenarios. This included Experiment 1: forecasting yield mid-season (e.g. for mid-season fertilisation), Experiment 2: forecasting yield late-season (e.g. for late-season logistics/forward selling), Experiment 3: predicting yield in a previous season for a field with no yield data in a season, and Experiment 4: predicting yield in a previous season for a field with some yield data (e.g. two combine harvesters, but only one was fitted with a yield monitor). This study showcases how different model calibration and validation approaches clearly impact prediction quality, and therefore how they should be interpreted in data-driven crop yield modelling studies. This is key for ensuring that the wealth of data-driven crop yield modelling studies not only contribute to the science, but also deliver actual value to growers, industry, and governments.

求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Precision Agriculture
Precision Agriculture 农林科学-农业综合
CiteScore
12.30
自引率
8.10%
发文量
103
审稿时长
>24 weeks
期刊介绍: Precision Agriculture promotes the most innovative results coming from the research in the field of precision agriculture. It provides an effective forum for disseminating original and fundamental research and experience in the rapidly advancing area of precision farming. There are many topics in the field of precision agriculture; therefore, the topics that are addressed include, but are not limited to: Natural Resources Variability: Soil and landscape variability, digital elevation models, soil mapping, geostatistics, geographic information systems, microclimate, weather forecasting, remote sensing, management units, scale, etc. Managing Variability: Sampling techniques, site-specific nutrient and crop protection chemical recommendation, crop quality, tillage, seed density, seed variety, yield mapping, remote sensing, record keeping systems, data interpretation and use, crops (corn, wheat, sugar beets, potatoes, peanut, cotton, vegetables, etc.), management scale, etc. Engineering Technology: Computers, positioning systems, DGPS, machinery, tillage, planting, nutrient and crop protection implements, manure, irrigation, fertigation, yield monitor and mapping, soil physical and chemical characteristic sensors, weed/pest mapping, etc. Profitability: MEY, net returns, BMPs, optimum recommendations, crop quality, technology cost, sustainability, social impacts, marketing, cooperatives, farm scale, crop type, etc. Environment: Nutrient, crop protection chemicals, sediments, leaching, runoff, practices, field, watershed, on/off farm, artificial drainage, ground water, surface water, etc. Technology Transfer: Skill needs, education, training, outreach, methods, surveys, agri-business, producers, distance education, Internet, simulations models, decision support systems, expert systems, on-farm experimentation, partnerships, quality of rural life, etc.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信