High transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Amazonia, Brazil: an epidemiological strategy to contain severe cases of COVID-19.

IF 2.3 3区医学 Q2 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES

Journal of Public Health Policy Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI:10.1057/s41271-024-00530-0

Lucas Ferrante, Eduardo Capanema, Wilhelm Alexander Cardoso Steinmetz, Bruce Walker Nelson, Alexandre Celestino Leite Almeida, Jeremias Leão, Letícia Sarturi Pereira, Ruth Camargo Vassão, Philip Martin Fearnside, Unaí Tupinambás

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We followed the COVID-19 pandemic in Manaus, one of the epicenters of COVID-19 in Brazil, using an epidemiological mathematical model and made five main conclusions. First, in early 2022, the actual cases exceed officially reported data by up to 8 times. Second, despite vaccination campaigns, the collective immunity threshold necessary was insufficient to contain severe cases of COVID-19. Next, the low observed mortality demonstrated the effectiveness of vaccination. Next, the drop in the vaccination rate combined with immune escape by the Omicron sub-variants (BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5) resulted in new wave after November 2022. Finally, to minimize severe cases of COVID-19, we need to raise vaccination thresholds above 90-95% of the entire population including children aged 6 months and older and require booster doses at least in four-month intervals. This approach would help to prevent severe cases of COVID-19 that cause hospitalizations and deaths.

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巴西亚马逊地区SARS-CoV-2高传播：控制COVID-19重症病例的流行病学战略

我们使用流行病学数学模型跟踪了巴西疫情中心之一马瑙斯的COVID-19大流行情况，并得出了五个主要结论。首先，在2022年初，实际病例比官方报告的数据高出多达8倍。第二，尽管开展了疫苗接种运动，但必要的集体免疫阈值不足以遏制COVID-19的严重病例。其次，观察到的低死亡率证明了疫苗接种的有效性。接下来，疫苗接种率的下降加上Omicron亚变体（BA.2.12.1， BA.4和BA.5）的免疫逃逸导致了2022年11月之后的新一波。最后，为了尽量减少COVID-19的严重病例，我们需要将疫苗接种阈值提高到包括6个月及以上儿童在内的整个人口的90-95%以上，并要求至少每隔4个月进行一次加强剂量。这种方法将有助于预防导致住院和死亡的COVID-19严重病例。

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来源期刊

Journal of Public Health Policy 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

5.70

自引率

2.60%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： The Journal of Public Health Policy (JPHP) will continue its 35 year tradition: an accessible source of scholarly articles on the epidemiologic and social foundations of public health policy, rigorously edited, and progressive. JPHP aims to create a more inclusive public health policy dialogue, within nations and among them. It broadens public health policy debates beyond the ''health system'' to examine all forces and environments that impinge on the health of populations. It provides an exciting platform for airing controversy and framing policy debates - honing policies to solve new problems and unresolved old ones. JPHP welcomes unsolicited original scientific and policy contributions on all public health topics. New authors are particularly encouraged to enter debates about how to improve the health of populations and reduce health disparities.