Quantifying the health impact of PM2.5 with various chemical transport models and for different years − A case study for Poland

IF 10.3 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Maciej Kryza , Małgorzata Werner , Michael Holland , Helen ApSimon
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Abstract

Poland is in the group of European countries with the most severe air quality and specific emission structure (over 80 % of PM2.5 emitted in residential combustion). In this work, we quantify the health impacts of PM2.5 concentrations in Poland using two chemical transport models (CTMs), WRF-Chem and EMEP4PL. The models were run for two years (2017 and 2018), which differed in meteorological conditions. The results show that the total number of premature deaths that could be avoided if the PM2.5 concentrations do not exceed the WHO recommended value of 5 μg m−3 exceeds 22,000 deaths for all model runs and meteorological years considered, with the lowest estimate at 22,447 (WRF-Chem model run for the year 2017; 95 % confidence intervals CI (95 % CI) 17121–25045) and the highest at 29,227 (95 % CI 22343 – 32572; EMEP4PL for the year 2018). These numbers are underestimated, as both CTMs underestimate the measured PM2.5 concentrations at site locations. The underestimation is the highest during the heating seasons and can be reduced if the emission of primary PM2.5 from residential combustion increases. The total number of estimated premature deaths is sensitive to chemical transport model selection and meteorological year. The selection of the meteorological year for the analysis may change the estimated number of premature deaths by 10 %. This change is significant compared to the estimated change in health impact due to the envisaged implementation of the Clean Air Program in Poland.

Abstract Image

Abstract Image

用各种化学输送模型和不同年份量化PM2.5对健康的影响——以波兰为例
波兰是欧洲空气质量和特定排放结构最严重的国家之一(住宅燃烧排放的PM2.5超过80% %)。在这项工作中,我们使用WRF-Chem和EMEP4PL两种化学运输模型(CTMs)量化了波兰PM2.5浓度对健康的影响。这些模型运行了两年(2017年和2018年),气象条件有所不同。结果表明,在所有模型运行和气象年份中,如果PM2.5浓度不超过世卫组织推荐值5 μ m−3,可以避免的过早死亡总数超过22,000人,其中最低估计数为22,447人(WRF-Chem模型运行为2017年);95 %置信区间CI(95 % CI) 17121—25045)和最高的29,227(95 % CI 22343—32572;EMEP4PL(2018年)。这些数字被低估了,因为两个CTMs都低估了现场测量的PM2.5浓度。在采暖季被低估的程度最高,如果住宅燃烧产生的一次PM2.5排放量增加,可以减少低估。估计的过早死亡总数对化学运输模式选择和气象年份敏感。选择气象年进行分析可能会使估计的过早死亡人数改变10% %。与预期在波兰实施《清洁空气方案》对健康影响的估计变化相比,这一变化意义重大。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Environment International
Environment International 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
21.90
自引率
3.40%
发文量
734
审稿时长
2.8 months
期刊介绍: Environmental Health publishes manuscripts focusing on critical aspects of environmental and occupational medicine, including studies in toxicology and epidemiology, to illuminate the human health implications of exposure to environmental hazards. The journal adopts an open-access model and practices open peer review. It caters to scientists and practitioners across all environmental science domains, directly or indirectly impacting human health and well-being. With a commitment to enhancing the prevention of environmentally-related health risks, Environmental Health serves as a public health journal for the community and scientists engaged in matters of public health significance concerning the environment.
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