[Carbon Emission Influencing Factors and Abatement Cost Calculation of Households in Northern Counties: A Case Study of Fengning County, Hebei].

Abstract

With the economic development and the pace of urbanization, the rising living standard of the urban population has been accompanied with the increase in household carbon emissions in China, and it is of importance to understand the characteristics of the carbon emissions in order to support green energy transitions and sustainable development. Based on the household survey data and using the "Lifestyle calculator-for individuals" developed by the United Nations Climate Change Organization, this study analyzes urban household carbon emissions in Fengning County, Hebei Province, a typical county in North China. We applied the Lasso regression and Random Forest Models （RFMs）, assessing the impacts of relevant factors on household emissions. Through techno-economic analysis, we estimated the costs of various emission reduction measures. RThe results revealed that household carbon emissions were mostly related to energy use, transport, shopping, and dining, which accounted for 33.36%, 15.14%, 23.81%, and 27.90% of the total emissions, respectively. The factors affecting the household emission level included： the means of transport, household heating, efficiency of home appliances, household size, and the amount of electricity and natural gas consumed. Using new energy vehicles, centralized heating and energy-efficient appliances could cut carbon emissions significantly. In terms of the costs of emission abatement of different measures, choosing energy-efficient appliances and green transport were among the lowest-cost options； building energy-saving retrofitting could result in the highest reduction, and energy substitution required the highest investment. The emission reduction potential in Fengning was assessed, and discussions were made to draw policy recommendations supporting emission reduction in the household sector and facilitate low-carbon and green lifestyle development in Chinese counties.