[Carbon Emission for China's Iron and Steel Industry： Peak Scenarios and Neutralization Pathways].

Abstract

To explore the future carbon emission peak scenarios of China's iron and steel industry as well as the effective pathways for carbon emission neutrality, the generalized Divisia index method （GDIM） was first used to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emission changes from 2001 to 2020, and then Monte Carlo simulation was used to conduct a dynamic scenario simulation of the carbon emission evolution trends from 2021 to 2035. The results showed that： ① Economic output and crude steel production were the most important factors contributing to the increase in carbon emission in the iron and steel industry； among the factors contributing to the decrease, the carbon intensity of economic output had the most significant effect, followed by the carbon intensity of production, and the energy consumption per ton of steel and the energy output rate did not have a significant effect on the decrease in carbon emissions. ② Under the scenario BAU, scenario L, and scenario S, the iron and steel industry could achieve carbon emission peaking in 2030, 2025, and 2020, respectively.