Combining Satellite, Teleconnection, and In Situ Data to Improve Understanding of Multi-Decadal Coastal Ice Cover Dynamics on Earth's Largest Freshwater Lake

Abstract

To differentiate and understand drivers behind coastal ice cover trends and variability, we advance development of a model combining satellite, in situ, and teleconnection data along the shoreline of Earth's largest freshwater lake (Lake Superior). Previous studies suggest a regime shift in Lake Superior's ice cover starting in 1998. Our study includes seven years of new data and subsequent model analysis that provide new insight into characteristics of the post-1998 regime. In addition to providing a valuable extension to the historical ice cover record for this domain, we find the regime shift in coastal ice cover starting in 1998 is characterized by pronounced variability, and not simply a shift in pre-1998 trends. Our findings represent an important stepping stone for future ice and climate modeling not only on Lake Superior but across the entire Great Lakes region and in other global high-latitude coastal regions as well.