The Multiracial Complication: The 2020 Census and the Fictitious Multiracial Boom

Abstract

The Census Bureau set off reports of a 'multiracial boom' when it announced that, according to the 2020 census, multiracial people accounted for 10.2 percent of the U.S. population. Only the year before, the bureau's American Community Survey had estimated their share as 3.4 percent. We provide evidence that the multiracial boom was largely a statistical illusion resulting from methodological changes that confounded ancestry with identity and mistakenly equated national origin with race. Under a new algorithm, respondents were auto-recoded as multiracial if, after marking a single race, they listed an 'origin' that the algorithm did not recognize as falling within that race. However, origins and identity are not the same; confounding the two did not improve racial statistics. The fictitious multiracial boom highlights the power of official statistics in framing public and social-science understanding and the need to keep ancestry and identity distinct in both theory and empirical practice.