Accelerating upper crustal deformation and seismicity of Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), during the 2000–2023 unrest

IF 8.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
A. Bevilacqua, A. Neri, P. De Martino, F. Giudicepietro, G. Macedonio, P. Ricciolino
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Campi Flegrei is the largest active caldera in Europe and it is home to more than 350,000 people. Since 2005, the caldera has shown accelerating ground inflation and an intensification of seismic activity. Here we quantify the decadal accelerating trend alongside oscillations of various frequencies and explore the relationships between deformation and seismic activity over the period 2000 to November 2023. Results highlight the major changes that have occurred in the last four years analyzed and reveal a parabolic increase in vertical uplift and a super-exponential (squared-exponential) rise in the number of earthquakes and seismic energy release. Inspection of data indicate a close temporal correlation between deformation rate and seismicity, and an exponential relationship, with an exponent increasing over time, between ground deformation and cumulative number of earthquakes. These relationships are consistent with a quasi-elastic behavior and a stress memory (Kaiser) effect of the upper crust of the caldera under an increasing stress suggesting a progressive mechanical weakening. Most importantly, they provide evidence of an accelerating sensitivity of seismic activity to caldera inflation and warn of the possibility of significant seismic events in case of continuation, with the same trends and relations, of the bradyseismic crisis in the next years. During the Campi Flegrei caldera unrest from 2000 to 2023, the upper crust had a quasi-elastic behavior and there was a parabolic increase of ground uplift and a superexponential increase in the number of earthquakes and seismic energy release.

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来源期刊
Communications Earth & Environment
Communications Earth & Environment Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences
CiteScore
8.60
自引率
2.50%
发文量
269
审稿时长
26 weeks
期刊介绍: Communications Earth & Environment is an open access journal from Nature Portfolio publishing high-quality research, reviews and commentary in all areas of the Earth, environmental and planetary sciences. Research papers published by the journal represent significant advances that bring new insight to a specialized area in Earth science, planetary science or environmental science. Communications Earth & Environment has a 2-year impact factor of 7.9 (2022 Journal Citation Reports®). Articles published in the journal in 2022 were downloaded 1,412,858 times. Median time from submission to the first editorial decision is 8 days.
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