Interannual Covariation of the North American and African Summer Monsoons

Abstract

The North American summer monsoon (NASM) and the North African summer monsoon (NAFSM) are two vital subsystems of the global monsoon. To date, the potential inter-monsoon relationship between the NASM and NAFSM has not been fully understood. To fill this gap, we investigate the NASM–NAFSM relationship on the interannual timescale during the period of 1979–2022. Based on statistical methods (including correlation, empirical orthogonal function and cross wavelet analyses), we identify a noteworthy interannual covariation of the NASM and NAFSM. This observed NASM–NAFSM covariation can be explained by atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic, suggesting the critical roles of tropical Pacific–Atlantic SST anomalies in shaping the NASM–NAFSM covariation. The results of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models indicate that a model's ability to simulate the NASM–NAFSM covariation tends to be related to its ability to reproduce the modulating effects of the tropical Pacific–Atlantic SST anomalies. These results have potential implications for seasonal forecasts of the NASM and NAFSM variations, suggesting that the NASM and NAFSM can be considered simultaneously in climate predictions.