A distributed photovoltaic short-term power forecasting model based on lightweight AI for edge computing in low-voltage distribution network

Abstract

Recent years, the tremendous number of distributed photovoltaic are integrated into low-voltage distribution network, generating a significant amount of operational data. The centralized cloud data centre is unable to process the massive data precisely and promptly. Therefore, the operational status of distributed photovoltaic systems in low-voltage distribution network becomes difficult to predict. However, edge computing in the distribution network enable local processing of data to improve the real-time and reliability of the forecasting service. In this regard, this paper proposes a distributed photovoltaic short-term power forecasting model based on lightweight AI algorithms. Firstly, based on the Pearson correlation coefficient method, an analysis is conducted on the historical operational data in the network to extract important meteorological features that are correlated with the photovoltaic power output. Secondly, a distributed photovoltaic power forecasting model for the distribution network is constructed based on the Xception and attention mechanism. Finally, the model is trained using pruning, which involves removing redundant parts of the model, resulting in a compact and efficient forecasting model. By conducting validation on real-world datasets, the results demonstrate that the model presented in this article possesses a smaller size and higher forecasting accuracy compared to other state-of-the-art forecasting models.