{"title":"Heatwave Intensifications in Armenia: Evidence From Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Observational Data Over the Last Decades","authors":"Hrachuhi Galstyan, Hrachya Kocharyan, Shamshad Khan","doi":"10.1002/joc.8646","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n <p>Increasing temperatures cause the weather to become more severe. Studying how heatwaves (HWs) impact individual heat exposure and susceptibility is vital for building climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. So, this study explores the impact of HWs on individual heat exposure and susceptibility. The assessment was based on the highly complex topographic region contribution to HWs in the Republic of Armenia (RA) using data from 16 meteorological stations for the extended warm season (May–September). We developed a regional HW catchment program to estimate the HW indices' responses to climatic change and to present them in terms of topography changes. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to determine the statistical significance of the trends for 10 distinct HW indicators using linear and exponential trends along with graphical interpretations. This study reveals a large-scale, significant increasing trend in annual maximum temperatures (<i>T</i>\n <sub>max</sub>) and observed HWs over the period 1955–2019. The rising temperature is accompanied by an increase in HW indices, particularly at low altitudes up to 1250 m above sea level (ASL), where the main population centres and national crop production are concentrated. According to our classification, the above-mentioned areas have faced extreme and severe increases in HW intensity, covering more than 60% of the country's territory. Moreover, not only the intensity and frequency have been identified but the HW period extension as well. This extreme increase has been found in the low-lying highly populated and intensively cultivated areas, such as in the Ararat valley. These results have implications for future climate assessments, adaptation strategies, agriculture and public health in Armenia. The development of targeted mitigation measures and adaptation strategies informed by these findings is essential for addressing the escalating challenges posed by HWs in the region.</p>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 15","pages":"5454-5473"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Climatology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.8646","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Increasing temperatures cause the weather to become more severe. Studying how heatwaves (HWs) impact individual heat exposure and susceptibility is vital for building climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. So, this study explores the impact of HWs on individual heat exposure and susceptibility. The assessment was based on the highly complex topographic region contribution to HWs in the Republic of Armenia (RA) using data from 16 meteorological stations for the extended warm season (May–September). We developed a regional HW catchment program to estimate the HW indices' responses to climatic change and to present them in terms of topography changes. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to determine the statistical significance of the trends for 10 distinct HW indicators using linear and exponential trends along with graphical interpretations. This study reveals a large-scale, significant increasing trend in annual maximum temperatures (Tmax) and observed HWs over the period 1955–2019. The rising temperature is accompanied by an increase in HW indices, particularly at low altitudes up to 1250 m above sea level (ASL), where the main population centres and national crop production are concentrated. According to our classification, the above-mentioned areas have faced extreme and severe increases in HW intensity, covering more than 60% of the country's territory. Moreover, not only the intensity and frequency have been identified but the HW period extension as well. This extreme increase has been found in the low-lying highly populated and intensively cultivated areas, such as in the Ararat valley. These results have implications for future climate assessments, adaptation strategies, agriculture and public health in Armenia. The development of targeted mitigation measures and adaptation strategies informed by these findings is essential for addressing the escalating challenges posed by HWs in the region.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions