Effects of the long-term rice expansion on ecosystem carbon budget in the typical agricultural area of Northeast China

Abstract

Extensive rice expansion in northeast China has significantly altered land use and land cover (LULC) changes. However, the impact of long-term rice expansion on regional carbon budget dynamics remains unclear. A major obstacle in addressing this gap is the absence of agricultural LULC information with high spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we selected the Sanjiang Plain experienced dramatic rice expansion as the study area, presenting a framework that integrates high-resolution crop distribution data with a process-based model to quantify the impact of rice expansion on regional carbon budgets. Specifically, we employed a robust deep-learning network for crop mapping based on Landsat data, to reconstruct the spatiotemporal dynamics of rice expansion from 1985 to 2020. We then incorporated these long-term crop maps into the Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model, to explore the effects of rice expansion on the regional carbon budget over this period. Analysis results showed that the rice planting area expanded by 708.64 km²/yr, resulting in more than a tenfold increase over the past 36 years. Spatially, rice planting expanded from the southwest to the northeast and from the interior to the exterior. This expansion has resulted in approximately 275 Mt. of CO₂ and 6.92 Mt. of CH₄ greenhouse gas emissions, altering the dynamics of the regional carbon budget and shifting the ecosystem from a carbon sink to a carbon source since 2016. Although the long-term expansion of rice increased soil respiration and CH₄ emissions, it also enhanced soil carbon sequestration through agricultural management practices. These findings greatly enhance our understanding of the ecosystem carbon cycle's response to long-term agricultural LULC changes, providing more accurate data support and scientific evidence for developing low-carbon agricultural policies.