Landslide susceptibility evaluation and determination of critical influencing factors in eastern Sichuan mountainous area, China

Abstract

Landslide susceptibility evaluation and determination of critical influencing factors is a prerequisite for preventing hazardous risks, especially in landslide-prone mountainous areas. However, in densely vegetated Southwest mountainous areas, identifying assessment approach of shallow landslides susceptibility and their major inducing factors is still a huge challenge. To address this challenge, we applied five advanced machine learning models (Logistic Regression Model, Generalized Additive Model, Random Forest Model, Support Vector Machine Model, Artificial Neural Network Model) to assess the spatial distribution of shallow landslide susceptibility, considering several relevant factors that affect landslide occurrence. These factors include geological, topographic and vegetation factors, as well as four new vegetation factors: stock volume, stand density, average tree age, and stand types. Furthermore, we employed SHAP algorithm and Structural Equation Models to quantify the relative importance and explanatory power of these factors on shallow landslide susceptibility and to clarify the interaction mechanisms among various factors in Huaying Mountain. The results shown that Random Forest Model proves to be the most accurate (95.1 %) in assessing the spatial distribution of shallow landslides susceptibility, followed by the Artificial Neural Network model (78.6 %), the Support Vector Machine model (69.8 %), the Generalized additive model (68.1 %) and the Logistic Regression model (67.6 %).The area with high susceptible landslide possibility was 25.3 km² occupying 14.8 % of the study region, it is mainly distributed in the west of Tianchi Lake, southeast of Huaying City and west of the study area, along with Xiangyu Railway. Geographical environment and vegetation features were found to significantly explain 67.4 % and 32.6 % of the total effects in shallow landslides susceptibility, respectively. Specifically, the spatial distribution of shallow landslides susceptibility were primarily influenced by geological engineering rock group, distance to faults、stand types and distance to river. Geographical environment factors could indirectly affect changes in vegetation features, thereby indirectly affecting the spatial distribution of shallow landslides susceptibility. Findings from this research could be helpful for scientific decision-making and technical assistance for early warning, prevention, and control of rainstorm-induced landslides in highly vegetation covered areas.