Two-stage planning of integrated energy systems under copula models informed cascading extreme weather uncertainty

IF 10.1 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI:10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124990

Longxiang Chen , Ze Luo , Rui Jing , Kai Ye , Meina Xie

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Extreme weather events are becoming more intense and frequent globally. It is essential to enhance the resilience of energy system at the planning stage and mitigate negative impacts of these events on system performance by multi-energy integration and design optimization. Therefore, a two-stage integrated energy system planning framework is proposed in this work, which enhances the operational flexibility and resilience under extreme weather conditions. The correlation between floods and storm caused by typhoons is captured by copula models and incorporated into the integrated energy system planning model. The framework is applied to a case study of an industrial park with factory business and residence users. The results indicate that considering cascading extreme weather reduces the total cost and the interruption rate by 2.86 % and 53.71 %, respectively, compared to addressing single extreme weather events. For industrial parks with a high proportion of critical loads, the planning is more conservative, highlighting a reduced need for considering cascading extreme weather.

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来源期刊

Applied Energy 工程技术-工程：化工

CiteScore

21.20

自引率

10.70%

发文量

1830

审稿时长

41 days

期刊介绍： Applied Energy serves as a platform for sharing innovations, research, development, and demonstrations in energy conversion, conservation, and sustainable energy systems. The journal covers topics such as optimal energy resource use, environmental pollutant mitigation, and energy process analysis. It welcomes original papers, review articles, technical notes, and letters to the editor. Authors are encouraged to submit manuscripts that bridge the gap between research, development, and implementation. The journal addresses a wide spectrum of topics, including fossil and renewable energy technologies, energy economics, and environmental impacts. Applied Energy also explores modeling and forecasting, conservation strategies, and the social and economic implications of energy policies, including climate change mitigation. It is complemented by the open-access journal Advances in Applied Energy.