A novel electrocardiogram-based model for prediction of dementia—The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

IF 1.3 4区医学 Q3 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS

Journal of electrocardiology Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI:10.1016/j.jelectrocard.2024.153832

Deling Chen , Yuchen Yao , Ethan D. Moser , Wendy Wang , Elsayed Z. Soliman , Thomas Mosley , Wei Pan

{"title":"A novel electrocardiogram-based model for prediction of dementia—The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study","authors":"Deling Chen , Yuchen Yao , Ethan D. Moser , Wendy Wang , Elsayed Z. Soliman , Thomas Mosley , Wei Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.jelectrocard.2024.153832","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Aim</h3><div>Create an ECG-based model to predict dementia and compare its performance with the existing Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia (CAIDE) model.</div></div><div><h3>Methods and Results</h3><div>Participants without prevalent dementia in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study were studied. Visit 4 (V4) (1996–98, mean age, 62 years) and V5 (2011–13, mean age, 75 years) were used as baselines. Incident dementia cases were adjudicated through 2019. We created parsimonious ECG models by using Cox regression with a backward selection method. C-statistic (95 % CI) of the ECG-based model (two or three ECG variables and age) was higher than the CAIDE model (seven variables) at V4 (0.72 [0.71–0.74] vs. 0.67 [0.66–0.68]) and V5 (0.70 [0.68–0.72] vs. 0.64 [0.62–0.66]). The ECG-based model was well calibrated, but the CAIDE model was poorly calibrated at V4 (<em>P</em> < 0.001).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>For middle-aged and older adults, a novel ECG-based model has good discrimination that is superior to the CAIDE model in predicting dementia. Since ECG variables are readily obtainable, the ECG-based model will be easy to adopt clinically.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15606,"journal":{"name":"Journal of electrocardiology","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 153832"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of electrocardiology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022073624003029","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Aim

Create an ECG-based model to predict dementia and compare its performance with the existing Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia (CAIDE) model.

Methods and Results

Participants without prevalent dementia in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study were studied. Visit 4 (V4) (1996–98, mean age, 62 years) and V5 (2011–13, mean age, 75 years) were used as baselines. Incident dementia cases were adjudicated through 2019. We created parsimonious ECG models by using Cox regression with a backward selection method. C-statistic (95 % CI) of the ECG-based model (two or three ECG variables and age) was higher than the CAIDE model (seven variables) at V4 (0.72 [0.71–0.74] vs. 0.67 [0.66–0.68]) and V5 (0.70 [0.68–0.72] vs. 0.64 [0.62–0.66]). The ECG-based model was well calibrated, but the CAIDE model was poorly calibrated at V4 (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

For middle-aged and older adults, a novel ECG-based model has good discrimination that is superior to the CAIDE model in predicting dementia. Since ECG variables are readily obtainable, the ECG-based model will be easy to adopt clinically.

查看原文本刊更多论文

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Journal of electrocardiology 医学-心血管系统

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

7.70%

发文量

152

审稿时长

38 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Electrocardiology is devoted exclusively to clinical and experimental studies of the electrical activities of the heart. It seeks to contribute significantly to the accuracy of diagnosis and prognosis and the effective treatment, prevention, or delay of heart disease. Editorial contents include electrocardiography, vectorcardiography, arrhythmias, membrane action potential, cardiac pacing, monitoring defibrillation, instrumentation, drug effects, and computer applications.