{"title":"Assessing the vulnerability of Cape Coral, Florida, to sea level rise using principal component analysis (2020–2050)","authors":"Jawata A. Saba , Kevin Ash , Darrell Napton","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105014","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sea level rise is a consequence of global climate change that has been affecting U.S. coasts with floods and storm surges. Florida is highly vulnerable because it has low-lying topography and coastlines on both the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. The City of Cape Coral, southwest Florida, has 400 miles of canals that provide waterfront property to the residents. Most of the canals are navigable, and accessible to the Gulf of Mexico. The city is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise because of its canals, site between the Matlacha Pass and the Caloosahatchee River, and development that has occurred in hazard prone areas. In this research, we used the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Sea Level Rise Calculator tool for three sea level rise scenarios for Cape Coral from 2020 to 2050 and created a Cape Coral Vulnerability Index (CCVI) using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). PCA reduced 25 variables to six factors that explained 78 % of the variance in the data. The study revealed that the whole city has a medium to high vulnerability to sea level rise induced coastal flooding. Projected flooding showed the vulnerable areas for future flooding, whereas CCVI identified the vulnerable populations and their locations in the city. One important finding is that both economically stable and poor people are vulnerable in Cape Coral. This research has significant implications in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. It can act as a guideline for the city for disaster management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 105014"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420924007763","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Sea level rise is a consequence of global climate change that has been affecting U.S. coasts with floods and storm surges. Florida is highly vulnerable because it has low-lying topography and coastlines on both the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. The City of Cape Coral, southwest Florida, has 400 miles of canals that provide waterfront property to the residents. Most of the canals are navigable, and accessible to the Gulf of Mexico. The city is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise because of its canals, site between the Matlacha Pass and the Caloosahatchee River, and development that has occurred in hazard prone areas. In this research, we used the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Sea Level Rise Calculator tool for three sea level rise scenarios for Cape Coral from 2020 to 2050 and created a Cape Coral Vulnerability Index (CCVI) using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). PCA reduced 25 variables to six factors that explained 78 % of the variance in the data. The study revealed that the whole city has a medium to high vulnerability to sea level rise induced coastal flooding. Projected flooding showed the vulnerable areas for future flooding, whereas CCVI identified the vulnerable populations and their locations in the city. One important finding is that both economically stable and poor people are vulnerable in Cape Coral. This research has significant implications in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. It can act as a guideline for the city for disaster management.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international.
Key topics:-
-multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters
-the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques
-discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels
-disasters associated with climate change
-vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends
-emerging risks
-resilience against disasters.
The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.