Towards decarbonisation or lock-in to natural gas? A bottom-up modelling analysis of the energy transition ambiguity in the residential sector by 2050

Abstract

While a green transition in the Greek building sector is considered critical towards a secure and resilient energy system by 2050, national policymaking continues to support schemes and investments on the expansion of the natural gas grid in the mainland, viewing natural gas as a transition fuel, especially in the residential sector. In this context, this article uses a bottom-up high-resolution demand-side model to simulate different transition scenarios in the Greek residential sector by 2050, as these are extracted from the current existing policy planning and political decisions, recent amendments currently under public consultation, and relevant national experts’ feedback. Simulation outcomes provide the evolution of the energy mix by 2050, along with the respective economic and environmental implications, for the different scenarios under study. Based on these outcomes, two key findings are derived: first, the existing renovation rate as set by national policymaking is not enough to lead to decarbonisation by 2050. If the goal is to achieve decarbonisation by 2050, then the current annual renovation rate of 1.5% must be updated to 2.5%, while, if a more ambitious goal of achieving decarbonisation by 2040 is to be adopted, the annual renovation rate must be updated to 3.5%. Second, the scenarios that promote electrification and the early phase out of natural gas result in lower costs, at both the national and the household level, and in lower levels of carbon emissions by 2050, implying that the current national reliance on natural gas may result in a missed opportunity of a green and inclusive energy transition, or even worse in a potential lock-in effect. Overall, this study provides critical and actionable insights to inform the development of national planning initiatives and support policymakers in crafting strategies that align with the overarching objectives of decarbonisation, climate neutrality, and energy security.