Towards decarbonisation or lock-in to natural gas? A bottom-up modelling analysis of the energy transition ambiguity in the residential sector by 2050

IF 9.9 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Dimitris Papantonis, Vassilis Stavrakas, Dimitra Tzani, Alexandros Flamos
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Abstract

While a green transition in the Greek building sector is considered critical towards a secure and resilient energy system by 2050, national policymaking continues to support schemes and investments on the expansion of the natural gas grid in the mainland, viewing natural gas as a transition fuel, especially in the residential sector. In this context, this article uses a bottom-up high-resolution demand-side model to simulate different transition scenarios in the Greek residential sector by 2050, as these are extracted from the current existing policy planning and political decisions, recent amendments currently under public consultation, and relevant national experts’ feedback. Simulation outcomes provide the evolution of the energy mix by 2050, along with the respective economic and environmental implications, for the different scenarios under study. Based on these outcomes, two key findings are derived: first, the existing renovation rate as set by national policymaking is not enough to lead to decarbonisation by 2050. If the goal is to achieve decarbonisation by 2050, then the current annual renovation rate of 1.5% must be updated to 2.5%, while, if a more ambitious goal of achieving decarbonisation by 2040 is to be adopted, the annual renovation rate must be updated to 3.5%. Second, the scenarios that promote electrification and the early phase out of natural gas result in lower costs, at both the national and the household level, and in lower levels of carbon emissions by 2050, implying that the current national reliance on natural gas may result in a missed opportunity of a green and inclusive energy transition, or even worse in a potential lock-in effect. Overall, this study provides critical and actionable insights to inform the development of national planning initiatives and support policymakers in crafting strategies that align with the overarching objectives of decarbonisation, climate neutrality, and energy security.
走向脱碳还是锁定天然气?到2050年住宅部门能源转型模糊性的自下而上模型分析
虽然希腊建筑行业的绿色转型被认为是到2050年建立一个安全和有弹性的能源系统的关键,但国家政策制定继续支持扩大大陆天然气电网的计划和投资,将天然气视为过渡燃料,特别是在住宅领域。在此背景下,本文使用自下而上的高分辨率需求侧模型来模拟到2050年希腊住宅部门的不同过渡情景,因为这些情景是从当前现有的政策规划和政治决策、目前正在公众咨询的最新修正案以及相关国家专家的反馈中提取出来的。模拟结果提供了到2050年能源结构的演变,以及所研究的不同情景各自的经济和环境影响。基于这些结果,得出了两个关键发现:首先,国家政策制定设定的现有更新率不足以在2050年前实现脱碳。如果目标是到2050年实现脱碳,那么目前1.5%的年更新率必须更新到2.5%,而如果要采用到2040年实现脱碳的更雄心勃勃的目标,则每年的更新率必须更新到3.5%。其次,促进电气化和天然气早期淘汰的情景导致国家和家庭层面的成本降低,到2050年碳排放水平降低,这意味着目前国家对天然气的依赖可能会导致错过绿色和包容性能源转型的机会,甚至更糟糕的是潜在的锁定效应。总体而言,本研究提供了关键的、可操作的见解,为国家规划举措的制定提供信息,并支持政策制定者制定与脱碳、气候中和和能源安全总体目标相一致的战略。
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来源期刊
Energy Conversion and Management
Energy Conversion and Management 工程技术-力学
CiteScore
19.00
自引率
11.50%
发文量
1304
审稿时长
17 days
期刊介绍: The journal Energy Conversion and Management provides a forum for publishing original contributions and comprehensive technical review articles of interdisciplinary and original research on all important energy topics. The topics considered include energy generation, utilization, conversion, storage, transmission, conservation, management and sustainability. These topics typically involve various types of energy such as mechanical, thermal, nuclear, chemical, electromagnetic, magnetic and electric. These energy types cover all known energy resources, including renewable resources (e.g., solar, bio, hydro, wind, geothermal and ocean energy), fossil fuels and nuclear resources.
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