Influencing Factors of Urinary Tract Stones Complicated by Urinary Tract Infections and the Construction of a Column Chart Prediction Model.

IF 1.4 4区 医学 Q4 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Li Cai, Xiaofen Wu, Xin Lian, Qing Zhou
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the influencing factors of urinary tract stones complicated by urinary tract infections and construct a column chart prediction model. Patients and Methods: From July 2020 to October 2023, 345 patients with urinary tract stones admitted to our hospital were collected as the training set, they were separated into an infection group of 51 cases and a non-infection group of 294 cases on the basis of the presence or absence of concurrent urinary tract infections; 192 patients with urinary tract stones were used as the testing set and were divided into an infection group of 26 cases and a non-infection group of 166 cases on the basis of the presence or absence of concurrent urinary tract infections. Data such as gender, age, and procalcitonin (PCT) were recorded. Multi-variable logistic regression analysis was applied to screen predictive factors, R4.0.2 software was applied to construct a column chart model, the calibration curve and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve were applied to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the column chart model; decision curve analysis curve was applied to evaluate the predictive performance of column chart models. Results: The proportions of female, diabetes mellitus, indwelling time of urinary catheter ≥7 days, the PCT, and urine pH in the infected group were greater than those in the non-infected group (p < 0.05). Female, diabetes mellitus, catheter retention time ≥7 days, high PCT, and high urine pH were independent risk factors for urinary calculi complicated with urinary tract infection (p < 0.05). Training set: C-index was 0.913, Area Under Curve (AUC) was 0.943 [95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.912-0.973], sensitivity was 86.36%, and specificity was 89.81%, testing set: C-index was 0.905, AUC was 0.959 (95% CI = 0.928-0.989), sensitivity was 84.65%, and specificity was 95.84%, indicating good discriminability of the line graph model; Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed χ2 = 2.843, 2.894, p = 0.944, 0.941, the calibration curve approached the ideal curve, and the line graph model had good calibration. When the risk threshold for urinary tract stones complicated by urinary tract infections was between 0.08 and 0.86, this column chart model provided clinical net benefits. Conclusion: The column chart prediction model for urinary tract stones complicated by urinary tract infections constructed in this study has high predictive efficiency and clinical practical value, and can provide reference for medical staff.

尿路感染并发尿路结石的影响因素及柱状图预测模型的构建
目的:分析尿路感染并发尿路结石的影响因素,并构建柱状图预测模型:分析尿路感染并发尿路结石的影响因素,并构建柱状图预测模型。患者与方法:收集2020年7月-2023年10月我院收治的345例尿路结石患者作为训练集,根据是否并发尿路感染分为感染组51例和非感染组294例;收集192例尿路结石患者作为检验集,根据是否并发尿路感染分为感染组26例和非感染组166例。记录了性别、年龄和降钙素原(PCT)等数据。应用多变量逻辑回归分析筛选预测因素,应用 R4.0.2 软件构建柱状图模型,应用校准曲线和接收者工作特征曲线(ROC)评价柱状图模型的区分度和校准度;应用决策曲线分析曲线评价柱状图模型的预测性能。结果感染组女性、糖尿病、留置导尿管时间≥7 天、PCT 和尿 pH 的比例均高于非感染组(P<0.05)。女性、糖尿病、导尿管留置时间≥7 天、高 PCT 和高尿 pH 值是尿路感染并发尿路结石的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。训练集C 指数为 0.913,曲线下面积(AUC)为 0.943 [95% 置信区间 (CI) = 0.912-0.973],灵敏度为 86.36%,特异性为 89.81%:C-index 为 0.905,AUC 为 0.959(95% CI = 0.928-0.989),灵敏度为 84.65%,特异度为 95.84%,表明线图模型具有良好的判别能力;Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验显示 χ2 = 2.843,2.894,p = 0.944,0.941,校正曲线接近理想曲线,线图模型具有良好的校正能力。当尿路结石并发尿路感染的风险阈值在 0.08 至 0.86 之间时,该柱状图模型可提供临床净效益。结论本研究构建的尿路感染并发尿路结石柱状图预测模型具有较高的预测效率和临床实用价值,可为医务人员提供参考。
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来源期刊
Surgical infections
Surgical infections INFECTIOUS DISEASES-SURGERY
CiteScore
3.80
自引率
5.00%
发文量
127
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Surgical Infections provides comprehensive and authoritative information on the biology, prevention, and management of post-operative infections. Original articles cover the latest advancements, new therapeutic management strategies, and translational research that is being applied to improve clinical outcomes and successfully treat post-operative infections. Surgical Infections coverage includes: -Peritonitis and intra-abdominal infections- Surgical site infections- Pneumonia and other nosocomial infections- Cellular and humoral immunity- Biology of the host response- Organ dysfunction syndromes- Antibiotic use- Resistant and opportunistic pathogens- Epidemiology and prevention- The operating room environment- Diagnostic studies
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