Do minority inclusive institutions increase electoral support for radical-right parties?

Abstract

How do minority inclusive institutions that improve minority groups’ political access influence the electoral success of radical-right, anti-minority parties? I explore this question by analyzing the case of Croatia’s national minority councils, which were introduced to enhance ethnic minorities’ political voices at the local level. Using a difference-in-differences design with panel data, I find that the vote shares of radical-right parties became lower, if anything, in municipalities with a minority council. Further, analyzing georeferenced survey data, I show that the introduction of minority councils did not necessarily worsen the ethnic majority’s attitudes toward minority groups. These findings indicate that contrary to the institutional variant of group threat theory, inclusive institutions do not have to trigger electoral backlash among people in the majority. This point has important implications for institution design in multiethnic societies.