{"title":"Cross-border sovereign risk transmission in BRICIT Nations: Unveiling asymmetries and the role of country risk premiums","authors":"Pawan Kumar, Vipul Kumar Singh","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.07.010","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research highlights the asymmetric interdependence structure among the sovereign risks of Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, and Türkiye (BRICIT) nations, challenging the traditional view that bilateral trade is the main channel for cross-border spillover effects. Despite their dependence on Russian crude oil imports for energy, the BRICIT nations show no significant sovereign risk interdependence with Russia. The study finds that Indonesia's credit default swap (CDS) has the highest level of interdependence with other nations. Further exploration of alternative transmission channels necessitates an examination of the country risk premium, revealing Türkiye as the most vulnerable nation due to its negative association with the CDS of other countries, particularly India. By contrast, India is identified as a preferred investment destination, thanks to its lower uncertainty and strong GDP growth over the past decade. Additionally, the research underscores China's economic influence, demonstrated by its positive association with all other BRICIT nations. This suggests that despite the high sovereign risk associated with China, investors do not view other emerging markets as viable, lower-risk alternatives. The perceived risk related to China appears to extend beyond its borders, impacting the sovereign risk profiles of other emerging economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"24 6","pages":"Pages 1263-1274"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Borsa Istanbul Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214845024001169","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This research highlights the asymmetric interdependence structure among the sovereign risks of Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, and Türkiye (BRICIT) nations, challenging the traditional view that bilateral trade is the main channel for cross-border spillover effects. Despite their dependence on Russian crude oil imports for energy, the BRICIT nations show no significant sovereign risk interdependence with Russia. The study finds that Indonesia's credit default swap (CDS) has the highest level of interdependence with other nations. Further exploration of alternative transmission channels necessitates an examination of the country risk premium, revealing Türkiye as the most vulnerable nation due to its negative association with the CDS of other countries, particularly India. By contrast, India is identified as a preferred investment destination, thanks to its lower uncertainty and strong GDP growth over the past decade. Additionally, the research underscores China's economic influence, demonstrated by its positive association with all other BRICIT nations. This suggests that despite the high sovereign risk associated with China, investors do not view other emerging markets as viable, lower-risk alternatives. The perceived risk related to China appears to extend beyond its borders, impacting the sovereign risk profiles of other emerging economies.
期刊介绍:
Peer Review under the responsibility of Borsa İstanbul Anonim Sirketi. Borsa İstanbul Review provides a scholarly platform for empirical financial studies including but not limited to financial markets and institutions, financial economics, investor behavior, financial centers and market structures, corporate finance, recent economic and financial trends. Micro and macro data applications and comparative studies are welcome. Country coverage includes advanced, emerging and developing economies. In particular, we would like to publish empirical papers with significant policy implications and encourage submissions in the following areas: Research Topics: • Investments and Portfolio Management • Behavioral Finance • Financial Markets and Institutions • Market Microstructure • Islamic Finance • Financial Risk Management • Valuation • Capital Markets Governance • Financial Regulations