Metals beyond tomorrow: Balancing supply, demand, sustainability, substitution, and innovations

Abstract

Finite or scarce metal supplies, rising demand, declining ore grades, and prospects of creating a climate-friendly metallurgical industry pose both a challenge and an opportunity to revitalize metals production through sustainable technology, innovations, and informed public policies. The rapid rise in metal consumption, faster than the population growth, challenges both the supply-demand balance and international environmental goals. Depletion of green technology critical metals, with known metal reserves unlikely to last more than half a century, emphasizes the need for increased substitutions, recycling, and reuse efforts. In the past, organized research and serendipity empowered us to innovate manufacturing processes and develop new alloys that fulfilled important societal needs. However, a renewed emphasis on metals research and development is required to meet new and future challenges where the use of critical metals is optimized, and metal sustainability is taken into account. While green technologies offer hope for a cleaner future, scale-up concerns and higher costs of these metals inhibit their widespread use. Current mitigation strategies fall short of Paris Agreement goals, but using advanced high-strength steels could significantly cut total steel usage and greenhouse gas emissions. Ensuring long-term reliance on metals necessitates finding a delicate balance between the challenges facing the metals industry and the multitude of technical and political factors important for their resolution. Engaging and educating the younger generation, particularly Generation Z, policymakers, and industry leaders, is necessary to effectively map out a path forward to revitalize the metals industry.