Survival trends and conditional survival in patients with pulmonary metastases from differentiated thyroid carcinoma.

IF 3.7 3区医学 Q2 Medicine

Endocrine Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-26 DOI:10.1007/s12020-024-04109-3

Xiaoyu Ji, Wei Sun, Chengzhou Lv, Jiapeng Huang, Ruonan Yu, Wenwu Dong, Hao Zhang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Introduction: Patients with pulmonary metastases from differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) have a significantly poorer prognosis compared to DTC patients without metastases. This study aimed to establish a nomogram combined with dynamic survival analysis to predict the survival probability of patients with pulmonary metastases from differentiated thyroid carcinoma and compensate for the underestimation of survival in patients with very poor prognosis.

Patients and methods: Patient data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiological, and End Result (SEER) data resource from 2010 to 2019. Multivariate analysis was carried out by the Cox proportional hazards regression to construct a nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves along with calibration were employed to assess the effectiveness of the model.The life table was used to estimate the conditional cancer-specific survival (CSS).

Results: In the training set, the AUCs for the CSS nomogram were 0.728, 0.741, and 0.779, with a c-index of 0.682, indicating good predictive performance at 3, 5, and 10 years. In the validation set, the AUCs for the CSS nomogram were 0.706, 0.726, and 0.769, with a c-index of 0.696, while the AUCs for the 8th TNM staging system were 0.521, 0.555, and 0.601, with a c-index of 0.579. The overall 5-year conditional survival rate for patients increased slightly from 63.44 to 70.52%. The survival gap was greatest between patients aged <55 years and those aged ≥55 years.

Conclusion: We established a nomogram combined with dynamic survival analysis, which serve as promising options for prognosis estimation, to enhance personalized evaluation of survival risks and provide the basis for the development of more clinical treatment approaches.

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分化型甲状腺癌肺转移患者的生存趋势和条件生存率。

简介分化型甲状腺癌（DTC）肺转移患者的预后明显差于无转移的DTC患者。本研究旨在建立一个结合动态生存分析的提名图，以预测分化型甲状腺癌肺转移患者的生存概率，并弥补预后极差患者生存率被低估的情况：患者数据来自2010年至2019年的监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据资源。采用考克斯比例危险回归法进行多变量分析，以构建提名图。使用生命表估算条件癌症特异性生存率（CSS）：在训练集中，CSS提名图的AUC分别为0.728、0.741和0.779，c指数为0.682，表明3年、5年和10年的预测性能良好。在验证集中，CSS提名图的AUC分别为0.706、0.726和0.769，c指数为0.696，而TNM第8分期系统的AUC分别为0.521、0.555和0.601，c指数为0.579。患者的总体5年条件生存率从63.44%略增至70.52%。其中，结论年龄段患者的生存率差距最大：我们建立了一个结合动态生存分析的提名图，作为预后评估的一种有前途的选择，以加强对生存风险的个性化评估，并为开发更多的临床治疗方法提供依据。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Endocrine 医学-内分泌学与代谢

CiteScore

6.40

自引率

5.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： Well-established as a major journal in today’s rapidly advancing experimental and clinical research areas, Endocrine publishes original articles devoted to basic (including molecular, cellular and physiological studies), translational and clinical research in all the different fields of endocrinology and metabolism. Articles will be accepted based on peer-reviews, priority, and editorial decision. Invited reviews, mini-reviews and viewpoints on relevant pathophysiological and clinical topics, as well as Editorials on articles appearing in the Journal, are published. Unsolicited Editorials will be evaluated by the editorial team. Outcomes of scientific meetings, as well as guidelines and position statements, may be submitted. The Journal also considers special feature articles in the field of endocrine genetics and epigenetics, as well as articles devoted to novel methods and techniques in endocrinology. Endocrine covers controversial, clinical endocrine issues. Meta-analyses on endocrine and metabolic topics are also accepted. Descriptions of single clinical cases and/or small patients studies are not published unless of exceptional interest. However, reports of novel imaging studies and endocrine side effects in single patients may be considered. Research letters and letters to the editor related or unrelated to recently published articles can be submitted. Endocrine covers leading topics in endocrinology such as neuroendocrinology, pituitary and hypothalamic peptides, thyroid physiological and clinical aspects, bone and mineral metabolism and osteoporosis, obesity, lipid and energy metabolism and food intake control, insulin, Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes, hormones of male and female reproduction, adrenal diseases pediatric and geriatric endocrinology, endocrine hypertension and endocrine oncology.